The conservative coalition wins the elections in Portugal and the far right advances

BarcelonaLuis Montenegro's conservative coalition (AD) won this Sunday's legislative elections in Portugal. Pending the counting of votes from abroad, the acting prime minister obtained 32.1% of the vote, or 89 seats. Pedro Nuno Santos' Socialists finished in second place by a very narrow margin, with 23.4% of the vote and 58 seats. The big winner of the night was the far-right Chega party, which until the last moment had overtaken the Socialists and ultimately secured 22.56% and the same number of seats. This is the first time the party has surpassed 20% of the vote. Following behind were the Liberal Initiative (5.5%), the environmentalist Livre (4.2%), the Communist Party (3%), the Left Bloc (2%), and the animal rights group Pan (1.36%). A result that confirms the decline of the entire left (which now has 69 seats compared to 92 in the previous term) compared to the 156 seats held by conservative parties.

Montenegro, who had to resign in March due to a conflict of interest scandal, hoped to secure his political future with a repeat election, a year and a half after winning the elections. But the result does not guarantee his stability. The leader of the conservatives, a 52-year-old lawyer who has always refused to govern with Chega's support, hopes to form a government with the Liberal Initiative and consolidate his majority. The outgoing coalition has a total of 86 seats out of 230, short of the 116 absolute majority. Thus, the prime minister risks once again finding himself trapped between the socialists and the far right.

Chega, on the rise

When I thought there had been overtaking Regarding the Socialists, Chega leader André Ventura told reporters that this represents "the end of the system" in place since the 1974 Carnation Revolution, which ended the Salazar dictatorship. "We are freeing ourselves from a 50-year bond," he stated, referring to the alternation in power between the Socialists and the Conservatives. Chega's far-right party will play a key role in the new parliament. The stability of the new government will depend, above all, on the AD's ability to reach agreements with other parties. But given that the Liberal Initiative has not obtained enough support to reach, with Montenegro's AD, the necessary majority of 116 of the 230 seats in the Parliament, the question is whether Montenegro will maintain the cordon sanitaire around Chega's far-right party or if he will be open to reaching agreements with André Ventura's party.

On the other hand, the Socialists have admitted "a very tough defeat," in the words of MP Mariana Vieira da Silva, who said that "the PS must focus on the reasons and reflect." Among the mistakes she acknowledges the party has made, da Silva points to "the excessive legitimization of Chega's positions" on issues such as immigration, and the inability to engage "an electorate that did not have these issues as their main concern," she said, referring mainly to housing, which was another key issue.

It seems that the health problems André Ventura has suffered in the final stretch of the campaign have not affected the extremist party's results. After receiving hospital treatment twice last week for an esophageal spasm, he made a surprise appearance at his party's final event on Friday.

Election Fatigue

The rise of the far right could reflect that the Portuguese are tired of electoral appointments and are looking for an alternative to break the current deadlock. This Sunday's elections were the second legislative elections in just over a year and the fourth in the last five years. This time, the justification for recalling them to the polls early—after only one year in office—was Prime Minister Luis Montenegro's defeat in a vote of no confidence in March. At that time, the opposition alleged irregularities in the financing of his family business, Spinumviva, following several leaks in the Portuguese press. Although at the time he lost the parliamentary vote he himself had proposed, polls indicate that voters were not overly concerned by this scandal, which the acting prime minister has repeatedly denied.