Portugal's government loses a vote of no confidence, leading the country to its third early election in three years

BarcelonaAt the beginning of November 2022, the Portuguese Prosecutor's Office ordered the search of the official residence of the then Prime Minister of Portugal, the socialist António Costa, for an alleged case of corruption (some spoke directly of lawfare) that in the following months would end up completely deflating. But, to everyone's surprise, in a turn that has been interpreted over time as a political move to save his European career, Costa decided to resign and leave on wet paper the absolute majority which he had achieved earlier that same year. The result of this operation was that the Iberian socialist alliance ended and Portugal turned to the right on March 10, 2024.

But the irony of fate has meant that just a year later Portugal is once again forced to the polls by another related corruption scandal. In this case, by the conservative Prime Minister, Luis Montenegro, who on Tuesday lost the motion of confidence presented in the Assembly of the Republic, the Portuguese Parliament, after having survived two motions of censure in recent weeks thanks to the abstention of the Socialist Party (PS).

At first glance, it may seem that there are many similarities between two cases that add discredit to Portugal's politics and allow the rise of populism and the extreme right. But while Costa decided to resign immediately, although he later proved his innocence and managed to become the President of the European Council, Montenegro has already made it clear that he intends to stand in the early parliamentary elections, which he says will take place on May 25, even if he is indicted by the Public Prosecutor's Office.

During the debate on the vote of no confidence, the Prime Minister has blamed the Socialists for leading the country once again to the "instability of an early electoral process" and "of allying themselves with the extreme right" in the vote due to a scandal that, in his opinion, has already been clarified. In fact, in a last-minute gesture without consequences, he has offered the Socialists to "suspend" the vote of no confidence if they gave him "what information they want, in what form and in what time frame". PS leader Pedro Nuno Santos responded that Montenegro was clear about "the scope and purpose" of the information and that "the only concern" he had was to "avoid the commission of inquiry" registered by the socialists through the motion of confidence.

A family business in the spotlight

Not even a month ago it came to light through the weekly Express that Montenegro's family receives a monthly allowance of 4,500 euros from a group that manages hotels and casinos in Portugal, Solverde, and which has many friends of the Prime Minister himself as shareholders. And he does so through a company founded by the Prime Minister himself in 2021, Spinumviva, later run by his wife and now in the name of his children. Information that, according to the opposition, the Portuguese conservative leader would not have transferred to the transparency bodies when he joined the government and questions the exclusivity agreement he has as Prime Minister. In addition, they demand the complete list of clients to know everything pocketed and the possible conflict of interest.

All this is added to the fact that Montenegro himself has confirmed a praxis similar to that of The president of Madrid, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, during the covid: recently stayed in a 5-star hotel in Lisbon for "250 euros a night" after reaching an agreement with the Sana group to be able to have a "more private" life separate from the official residence. In addition, the Montenegro family's assets have been under suspicion for months, after they paid 715,000 euros in cash for two apartments within a year, according to the newspaper Morning Mail. The Prosecutor's Office is investigating him through an anonymous complaint.

Why a motion of confidence?

There is no consensus within the conservative bloc or among Portuguese political analysts on why Montenegro has turned to face a vote of no confidence after having survived two votes of no confidence thanks to the abstention of the Socialist Party. In fact, a year ago it was the Socialists themselves who made it possible for him to come to power in order to avoid a pact with the far-right Chega party, which went from 12 to 50 deputies. In the last elections, the Democratic Alliance – the centre-right coalition led by Montenegro – obtained 80 deputies after a very close vote in which the Socialists won 78.

Now the latest polls show that the Socialists can overtake the Democratic Alliance in the next elections. But the margin remains narrow, while the various scandals of the far right are slowly taking their toll. Recently, a deputy from Chega was charged with stealing suitcases at Lisbon airport and selling his clothes on the Internet, while a councillor from Lisbon City Hall has been arrested for prostitution of minors.

Within the government, a week ago there were voices that were not even sure whether the vote of confidence would end up being debated, but the three cabinet meetings held in just a few days no longer left any shadow of doubt. During the meetings, important and also popular decisions were approved, conceived with an electoral spirit, such as the increase in nursery places through the private system, the launch of the National Railway Plan and the limitation of night flights over Lisbon, because the airport is in the middle of the city.