The Catalan electricity deficit is on the way to worsening

BarcelonaCatalonia consumes more electricity than it generates each year. In 2024, electricity consumption in the Principality was 44.1 TWh, while production was 37.4 TWh, representing a deficit of 15.19%. This pattern is repeated. According to a study by the consulting firm PwC, between 2020 and 2023 the average deficit between electricity demand and production was 8.5%, nearly half of that recorded last year. Furthermore, the situation does not point to improvement, due to the combined effects of three factors: the economy is becoming increasingly electrified, and the main source of electricity generation in Catalonia (nuclear power) has a closing schedule in sight, and renewables are developing at a slower pace than expected.

The PwC report predicts that this deficit could increase in the coming years. "The closure of nuclear power plants will turn Catalonia into a highly energy-dependent territory. In the worst-case scenario, in which renewable development maintains the pace of the last ten years, Catalonia would not be able to cover even 40% of its demand with its own generation, a situation that would worsen if increases in demand were considered, either due to the choice of renewable energy, storage, etc.," this study concludes.

The Red Eléctrica report on the Spanish electricity system in 2024 highlights an improvement in renewable production in Catalonia. Renewable electricity generation reached 7,160 GWh, an increase of more than 18% compared to the previous year. Renewables contributed just over 19% of all electricity produced in Catalonia. However, despite the improvement, this contribution is far from that of the three nuclear groups in Catalonia, which was over 59% of the total. A substantial difference with the mix of the entire state, where renewables contributed 56.8% of all electricity production.

Data from Red Eléctrica show an improvement in Catalonia's renewable energy mix. 19% of electricity in Catalonia came from renewable sources in 2024, but it was only 4.8% of the green energy in the entire state. To give you an idea, in Castilla y León, renewables contributed 93% of the electricity generated, in Aragón, 89%, and in Galicia, 85%. And Catalonia is far from meeting its targets: according to Óscar Barrero, partner responsible for energy at PwC, to achieve the 2030 targets of the energy foresight (PROENCAT, the Generalitat's roadmap for decarbonization), Catalonia would need to multiply its renewable capacity by seven. "It's difficult to match the PROENCAT leap," says Barrero.

The expert points out that Catalonia currently has to import approximately 7% of its electricity from other territories. But if the targets are not met and, in addition, Between 2030 and 2035, the three nuclear power plants will be closed as planned., there will only be two options: either return to fossil fuels by burning gas in combined-cycle power plants, which will increase emissions, or reinforce the networks to bring electricity from other parts of the State, such as Aragon.

But for now, the proposals that have been put forward for new very high voltage lines have not received the green light, as is the case of the one proposed by Forestalia to bring energy from Aragon from the province of Teruel to Begues. An industry source emphasizes that, even if Red Eléctrica were to propose doubling the current lines, "that can't be done overnight" and would not solve the grid congestion problem. Added to this is the fact that Spain has become an electricity exporter and that the interconnection with France passes through Catalonia, which would contribute to further grid saturation.

Little storage

Along with network limitations, there is another key aspect to guarantee supply, especially as renewables have greater weight in generationStorage. Here, too, homework remains to be done. There are two basic types of electricity storage: pumped storage plants and batteries. At the end of 2024, Catalonia had 0 MW of battery storage capacity, while in the case of pumped storage plants it was 534 MW. PROENCAT's target for 2030 is to reach 200 MW of batteries and 2,034 MW of pumped storage plants. In the latter case, achieving the goal in five years is quite difficult, since the processing of these types of plants and their construction require a rather long period of time.

The implications of the generation deficit are clear. "Gas-powered combined cycles will be necessary, whether or not there are nuclear plants," says Óscar Barrero, who recalls that last year, with some nuclear reactors shut down due to refueling or unplanned shutdowns and combined cycles operating, 600 MW of industrial plants had to be disconnected from the grid.