Being a Convergent, Socialist, Republican, or Popular Party member... is it inherited?

BarcelonaFor the first time in history, the Generalitat's Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) asked respondents which party their parents belonged to: whether their parents had any specific affiliations or identities, and whether they currently maintain them. So, is being a Socialist or a Convergent member something inherited? The conclusions of the latest CEO barometer from July are mixed: while it's true that some political parties manage to maintain this identity from generation to generation, others lose it and move to other parties or simply cease to identify with any political organization. "We were interested in studying the generational transmission of parties to see if there is an inheritance from parents to children, especially because in recent years in Catalonia, new parties have emerged and others have also disappeared; there has been an electoral shift between parties, and new generations have also joined the electorate," explains Joan Rodríguez Teruel.

According to the results of the barometer—the first time this series of questions was asked—the Socialists are the ones who manage to maintain the most consolidated party sympathy between parents and children. 38% of those who state that their parents identified with the PSC also identify with them now; this contrasts with the 21% who say they no longer identify with any political party, and the 13% who say they identify with Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya. In other words, while it could be said that in some cases being a Socialist is inherited, it is also true that there are children of Socialists who have now become Republicans.

The case of the PSC contrasts with that of the PP, which in Catalonia is the political party least successful in retaining this party identification in generational terms. Only 24% of those who say their parents were popular are now also supporters of Vox, 15% of those who now declare themselves supporters of PSC, and 22% of those who support no party.

The case of Junts

The case of Junts is interesting because it is a formally new party (it appeared in Parliament in the 2017 elections and was formally established in 2020), but above all because some of its leaders come from CiU, which disappeared as a coalition in 2015 and Convergència as a party in 2016 – with which it formed a party between 2016 – with an EC between the EC-2. For this reason, and because the party promoted by Jordi Pujol was hegemonic in the first autonomous stage, it is relevant to see if the identity of being convergent has been maintained from one formation to another. From the outset, Rodríguez Teruel, consulted by ARA, points out that the data collected does not match the historical results of the nationalist federation, since the respondents who say their parents identified with CiU are far fewer than those who cite the PSC, Esquerra, the PP, or even Junts, which did not yet exist. Which means, Teruel continues, that some of the respondents no longer have CiU in their minds and may have answered Junts (assuming they are the same), that they "don't know," or that they "do not support any political party."

Now, starting from this premise, what happens among those who do answer that their parents sympathized with Convergència? Is there generational continuity between CiU and Junts? According to the data, there is a breakdown in party identity: of those who say their parents voted for CiU, 25% say they identify with Junts, but 27% say they have no sympathy for any political party, 14% for the PSC, and 17% for the PSC. That is, although the majority of those who identify with Convergència as their parents' party are moving to Junts, more say they now do not identify with any party, and there are also some whose identity is dispersed to other parties.

However, Junts remains the second party that most maintains its identity after the PSC. Among those surveyed who say their parents sympathized with the party of the judiciary (and not CiU), 37% now also declare they identify with Carles Puigdemont's party. 18% now say they sympathize with ERC, and another 18% with no party. As for Esquerra, it is the third party, after the PSC and Junts, that most preserves its identity across generations. According to the barometer data, 34% of respondents say they identify with Esquerra like their parents, while 15% of Republican parents now sympathize with the CUP, 15% with Junts, 11% with the PSC, and 14% with no party. These responses indicate the diaspora of the children of Esquerra parents.

In fact, the identity that remains most stable is no party identity. Of those who responded that their parents did not have one, 39% still do not identify with a specific political organization, while 25% declare themselves Socialists and 13% Republicans. Regarding the other parties, not enough respondents have referenced them as the party of their ancestors to draw conclusions. What the CEO does confirm is that there are virtually no differences in the ideological influence that fathers and mothers can have on their parents. The numbers don't show significant changes.

The weight in the electorate

Rodríguez Teruel admits that the transmission of party identity is a little-studied topic, as until now there hasn't been enough data to investigate its effects. In any case, the CEO intends to delve deeper, not only by asking about sympathy for political parties but also about right-left ideology and the Catalonia-Spain national axis. In this way, explains the director of this body of the Generalitat (Catalan Government), they will be able to understand the preferences of the new generations—taking into account that their electoral weight will increase steadily—and also whether there is an ideological correspondence with what their parents believed or, on the contrary, if there is an antagonistic effect.