We can't be sure of anything, except uncertainty.
Karl Popper
This week's blackout brought us back to a disconcerting, sudden, and unprecedented situation. Suddenly, we found ourselves once again facing uncertainty. Amidst the chaos, with scarce information and the constant spread offake newsWith contradictory and conspiratorial hypotheses, individual and collective response capacity was put to the test. In those moments, we couldn't predict what would happen, but we had to make decisions and act. In fact, in the midst of an emergency, we often acquire knowledge, both communal and personal, that strengthens our resilience. This is the good news: we can turn crisis into opportunity.
Situations like the one we experienced last Monday (a crisis of hours, limited in time and in which, in principle, there was no risk to people's lives) can become a great testing ground from which we can draw great lessons for what may come.
For some people, these were very difficult and distressing hours; for others, they were a space to share and enjoy time that is usually scarce. It was surprising how many people were more socially connected than ever, thanks to digital disconnection. We were back to looking into each other's eyes and seeking creative and shared solutions to an uncertain challenge.
The blackout – and also Covid, the war in Ukraine, the earthquakes caused by Trump, the kit of survival… – shows us that uncertainty is a fundamental part of human life, the part of our history that escapes our control. That's why it's so important that we accept it.
And how can we improve our management of uncertainty?
First and foremost, it's essential that we reduce the need for certainty: this will be key to adapting to our world. Accepting uncertainty as an inherent part of life helps us reduce anxiety in the face of emergency situations. The important thing is to learn to live with that reality. Ultimately, every day we make decisions without having all the information or knowing for sure what will happen, and being aware of this should lead us to give up the absolute certainty that is often unattainable.
On the other hand, we are accumulating complex experiences, as we have seen previously, and this must be incorporated as a great value. In times of crisis, trusting in our own and collective experience can be key. Often, intuitions based on experience or practical knowledge can be as effective as detailed and more complex data analysis.
In this sense, in times of uncertainty, decisions must also be simplified, with simple and reliable mental rules. In fact, as psychologist Gigerenzer points out, using heuristic rules (simple mental rules) can allow for faster, more efficient, and adaptive decisions, especially in complex and uncertain environments.
Today, one of life's great challenges is to change our mindset when faced with phenomena that, so abruptly, generate so much uncertainty. Only with this attitude can we prepare ourselves and increase our resilience and adaptability.
