Europe, without success in the game of Trump and Putin

LondonLast Monday, the White House streamed nearly 26 minutes of the meeting between President Donald Trump and European leaders plus NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who accompanied Volodymyr Zelensky to his meeting with the tycoon after the Alaska summit with Vladimir PutinThe goal was to ensure that all this didn't end like the dawn rosary. That is, like the February meeting, when the Ukrainian president He was invited to leave with his tail between his legs after the Oval Office humiliation.. And also to prevent Kiev from being forced to accept peace terms on the terms set by the Kremlin.

If you carefully review his introductory remarks, Trump conceived the meeting, in part, as a spectacle designed to aggrandize himself. From the outset, he made constant self-references to himself.: "It's a great honor…" "I've spoken indirectly with President Putin… we'll call him later…" "I'm sure we'll have a solid meeting, perhaps a great meeting…" The emphasis of his speech wasn't on the peace process, but on himself as the protagonist. He even placed himself on the same level as historical events. "Since World War II, has there been anything like this?" he even said.

He also spoke of his experience as a peacemaker in wars. The current ones—"six or so"—and those to come. And he lavished much praise on the leaders present, sometimes in an almost frivolous tone: "You look very good with your tan, I wish I had one, you must be more powerful than all of these," he told German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, while the other leaders—Emmanuel Macron (France), Keir Ursula von der Leyen (European Commission), Alexander Stubb (Finland), Zelensky himself, and Mark Rutte—laughed at the joke or made it seem as though it was. All of this reinforced the image of a diplomacy based on sympathies and personal relationships that Trump believes he masterfully controls.

What is worrying for Europe from a political and military perspective is the lack of specificity regarding the security guarantees for Ukraine that Zelensky so desperately needs. The day after the meeting, Trump went from not ruling out the deployment of US troops in Ukraine to denying it and suggesting only air cover. And on Wednesday night, Vice President JD Vance reiterated on Fox that Europe "will have to bear the brunt of the burden."

The Europeans, in front of the cameras, did not contradict Trump. On the contrary. In total, up to sixteen times, using different formulas, they expressed gratitude and appreciation for his role as mediator: above all Zelensky, Starmer, and Rutte.

Macron and Merz spoke of the need for a truce, and the German chancellor warned that "the next steps are the most complicated." Merz was right. The next steps are the most complicated. And Trump constantly plays on the ambiguity of what exactly he will do and why. On this point, Orisia Lutzevich, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at London's Chatham House, believes that the US president "is pushing for a bilateral meeting between Putin and Zelensky, at least partly in the hope of getting a Nobel Peace Prize nomination."

Moscow, however, still has not approved the meeting, bilateral or trilateral. And this very Friday, once again, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov rejected the idea: "Nothing is ready; no meeting is planned," he said. On the contrary, Russia is bombarding Ukraine even more relentlessly, including the west of the country, with a a show of force like the one in the early hours of Thursday, when it launched 40 missiles and 574 drones.

An attack that raises serious doubts about the Kremlin's willingness to negotiate anything. Or to accept anything other than the proposals that already led to the embryonic peace talks in Turkey in 2022, shortly after the invasion began. That proposal demanded permanent neutrality for Ukraine and an explicit withdrawal from NATO in exchange for security promises from the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, including Russia itself. The proposal, rejected by Kiev, is still today the only basis that Moscow repeats, with the aim of freezing the front line and consolidating the occupied territories.

A toad that Moscow cannot accept.

The European Union knows that a step back in Ukraine could have devastating effects: it would put the three Baltic states at risk, increase pressure on Georgia and erode the credibility of a continent that is militarily dependent on the US. Brussels is aware that it has no self-defense.That's why their arms race– capable of guaranteeing an immediate response in the event of a Russian escalation. NATO remains essential, but with an unpredictable Trump in the White House – this Thursday, he invited the Ukrainian army to attack Russia in a post on his social network – the Europeans are once again facing their old contradiction: they aspire to the strategic autonomy that Macron so often claims is necessary, but they don't have it.

Furthermore, although on Friday Rutte and Zelensky again discussed in Kiev the necessary security guarantees in Ukraine, twenty-four hours earlier, the omnipresent Lavrov recalled that the presence of Western troops in Ukraine is unacceptable for the Kremlin. The American press has reported that the head of US diplomacy, Marco Rubio, will lead a series of discussions over the next ten days to link them together, but the lack of specificity is alarming, as is Russia's determination not to swallow the toad.

Analyst Orisia Lutzevich warns, however, that what Ukraine needs is not only the political support it already has, but an operational mechanism that can respond immediately in the event of a new attack. "As Russia is a nuclear state, the protection of Ukrainian security must include other nuclear powers," she emphasizes.

In any case, Trump's personal ambition to go down in history with the aforementioned Nobel Prize or a possible nomination clashes with reality: Moscow has no incentive to offer concessions that go beyond Ukrainian submission. Will Trump ultimately opt to pressure Putin? Many analysts believe that the US president wants Putin on his side so he can then begin the strategic assault on China. Thus, the most likely answer to the question is no. Meanwhile, Europe praises Donald Trump, White House imposes tariffs The war continues all over the world and in Ukraine. Alaska was a mirage, and Brussels and London were aware of this, despite Washington's spectacle. Putin and Trump have left Europe without the triumphs it has never had.