Europeans no longer consider the United States an “ally”

BrusselsThe return of Donald Trump has not only strained the relationship of European leaders with the United States, but also that of ordinary citizens. At the moment, the majority of inhabitants of the European Union consider that the United States is not an "ally" and only see it as "a necessary partner with whom strategic cooperation must be established," according to the report published on Wednesday by the research center ECFR (European Council on Foreign Relations)"Our survey shows a remarkable shift in public opinion and, as a headline, the possible death knell of the transatlantic alliance between the United States and Europe," said one of the study's authors and a researcher at the think tank, Arturo Varvelli.

In the eleven major EU member states in which ECFR conducted the survey, only 21% of citizens still consider the United States an "ally", but 50% only as a "necessary partner". The rest of the respondents do not know or do not answer, and about 15% consider the US power to be a "rival" or, at worst, an "adversary".

However, citizens' perception of the United States varies from country to country and, in fact, aligns with the positions of their state leaders. In this sense, the Eastern European and generally historically more pro-Atlanticist member states have a stronger bond with the US power. This is the case, for example, in Poland or Estonia, where about 30% of citizens still label the United States as an "ally". As for the United Kingdom, although it remains the closest country to the US, ties are also fraying: 37% consider it an "ally", while 44% believe it is a "necessary partner".

However, these figures contrast with those of traditionally less bellicose and more sceptical of the EU The Pentagon's vast military capabilities are not the only thing that can be said about the US. Only 14% of the inhabitants of Spain and France, and 18% of the citizens of Italy and Portugal, see the United States as an "ally." Meanwhile, 27% of Ukrainians believe that the US is an "ally," but 67% - the highest rate of all the countries surveyed - consider it a "necessary partner."

The study particularly highlights the development of Denmark, which has seen its territorial integrity threatened by Trump by suggesting military force to join Greenland. Although it is a country with an Atlanticist tradition, US support has plummeted. In April 2023, up to 54% of Danes believed that the US was an "ally", and in November 2024 the rate dropped to 30%. However, only 8% of citizens in Denmark see the US as a "rival" or "enemy".

Europeans believe that the war in Ukraine will end with a peace agreement

The ECFR report also finds that the majority of EU citizens believe that the war in Ukraine will end with peace negotiations between Kiev and Moscow. In the EU as a whole, 49 percent believe that a "compromise agreement" will be reached, 6 percent that Ukrainian troops will win the conflict, 18 percent that Russian troops will win, and the rest do not know or do not answer. This view prevails in almost all countries, even in those most belligerent against Vladimir Putin's regime. In Estonia, 52 percent of the inhabitants believe that the war will end with an agreement between both parties, in Denmark 55 percent, in Poland 44 percent and, outside the EU, in the United Kingdom 49 percent. As for Ukraine, 34 percent of citizens still believe that it will win the war, but 47 percent already believe that Kiev and Moscow will sign an agreement.

On the other hand, Europeans also do not believe that Trump's return to the White House The study also points out that the US government is likely to be a very positive step towards achieving peace in Ukraine, although the two countries are quite divided. In Germany, for example, 32% of citizens believe that the new US administration can make the situation worse and only 22% that it can improve it. In Spain, among others, the percentages are similar: 38% respond that the New York magnate can be an obstacle to peace and only 21% believe that he can contribute.

The study also points out that far-right voters They are those who consider that the ties between the EU and the US are stronger, and who are more in favour of Trump's policies. Support for the US president is especially high among supporters of the party of Hungarian leader Viktor Orbán (Fidez), the Polish party that controls the country's presidency (Law and Justice) and Brothers of Italy, led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. However, complicity with the New York magnate is lower among voters of Alternative for Germany (AfD) and Marine Le Pen's party (National Rally).

In this sense, another of the authors of the ECFR report, researcher Pawel Zerka, states that these data are linked to the fact that in Europe the far-right policies advocated by the US president are increasingly better received, as is being seen especially in the area of migration. "The Trumpization "Europe's development is underway," the expert proclaims.