Israel prepares to attack Iran, which says it is "ready" for war.

BarcelonaThe United States has ordered the partial evacuation of its embassy in Iraq and authorized the voluntary departure of the families of its diplomatic staff in Bahrain, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates due to "growing tension" in the region. The reason is reports of a possible imminent Israeli attack on Iran, reported by several US media outlets. While talks between Tehran and Washington to reach a nuclear deal appear to be stalled, media outlets such as the New York Times and CBS claim that Tel Aviv is preparing to attack the Iranian regime "soon" and without US support, citing unspecified US and European sources.

Without waiting for official confirmation from Israeli sources, the commander-in-chief of Iran's Revolutionary Guard, General Hosin Salami, has stated that the Islamic Republic is prepared for "war at any level" and will respond to any aggression. "The enemy sometimes threatens us with military action. We have always said, and we repeat it now, that we are fully prepared for any scenario, under any circumstances," Salami said, according to the Iranian news agency IRNA, adding that if Tel Aviv attacks them it will not find the "Palestinians besieged and harassed." In addition, Tehran has announced the start of military maneuvers throughout the country to "enhance defensive strength, operational readiness and deterrence capabilities."

Donald Trump justified his decision to evacuate his embassy by saying that "the region could become a dangerous place": "We've been warned to leave, we'll see what happens." Referring to Iran, with which the United States is negotiating an agreement on its nuclear program, The Republican stated: "They can't have nuclear weapons. It's very simple, we're not going to allow it." After having expressed optimism, Trump had sent signals in recent days that an agreement did not seem possible, something that could also be interpreted as a measure of pressure on Tehran.

Although Trump lamented the rise in oil prices on Thursday due to concerns about a possible conflict in the Middle East, the US president did not offer convincing explanations to justify the evacuation of US personnel from Iran. Some analysts therefore speculate that the fear of an Israeli attack on Iran could be a strategy to increase pressure on Tehran to obtain concessions at the negotiating table.

For its part, Iranian diplomacy has criticized that "US militarism only fuels instability." Iranian Defense Minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh has said he is confident of the talks' success, but also warned: "If they force conflict on us, America will have to leave the region because all their bases are within our reach."

The sixth round of talks between Washington and Tehran is scheduled to take place this week to discuss the lifting of international sanctions in exchange for commitments to limit Oman's nuclear program. The White House has said that Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff, is still being considered for participation.

Unprecedented accusation by the IAEA

Just this Thursday, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN body that oversees nuclear programs, denounced Iran for failing to comply with its non-proliferation obligations. This is the first time in twenty years that the IAEA has issued such a harsh signal, after saying last week that Tehran was not cooperating with inspectors and was keeping nuclear material secret.

This could further complicate negotiations between Washington and Tehran and escalate regional tensions. Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful and emphasizes that Israel is a nuclear power not subject to international control. In 2015, the Obama administration and the European Union reached a historic agreement that allowed Iran's nuclear program to be placed under international monitoring, but three years later, Trump unilaterally withdrew from the agreement early in his first term and reimposed sanctions. Since then, Iran has flouted the agreed-upon restrictions on uranium enrichment. According to the latest IAEA report, Iran now has 408 kilos of uranium enriched to 60% purity, very close to what is needed to make nine atomic bombs.

In response to the international report, which received 19 votes in favor, 3 against, and 11 abstentions, the Iranian Foreign Minister announced the construction of a new uranium enrichment plant in a "safe location" and threatened further measures.

Iranian political scientist Anahita Nassir explains to ARA that this dynamic of tension is not new. "We must not forget that Iran's nuclear program was launched in the 1950s under the Shah's regime, with the support of the United States. Since then, Tehran has always maintained that it wanted to develop nuclear energy for peaceful purposes. All countries, regardless of their regimes, have the right to develop nuclear energy for the benefit of their populations, as long as they do not threaten the maximum threat of the use of force, to pressure them to the negotiating table."

The pressure of sanctions

As Nassir recalls, "the Iranian regime is not interested in an open military clash because it would have little capacity to respond. Iran is surrounded by US and allied bases. Despite the threats, Tehran is trying to maintain resistance diplomacy and negotiate the lifting of sanctions to obtain liquidity and reduce public unrest." Sanctions that the ayatollahs "have been able to partially circumvent with strategic alliances with other authoritarian governments such as Russia and China." But it is the population that "suffers from inflation, low life expectancy, and lives under a corrupt and murderous regime."

Iran's response, threatening to attack US military bases, is part of the relations the regime has maintained with the United States since 1979. "When the Pentagon killed General Suleimani, Iran responded by attacking American bases in Iraq, but without causing any deaths. What we are seeing now may be another rhetorical escalation," he notes. And regarding Israel, the Iranian political scientist recalls that "Netanyahu has always wanted to force the United States to attack Iranian facilities, and so far they have not fallen for this provocation. He wants to create a smokescreen and divert attention from the genocide in Gaza and its internal problems." But at the same time, Tehran was accustomed to waging proxy wars with the groups it armed in the region, rather than direct clashes, which is now more complicated following the defeat of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, the weakening of pro-Iranian militias in Iraq, or the agreement with the Houthis in Yemen. Therefore, Nassir warns that "the situation in the region does not currently offer the conditions for calm negotiations."

Nassir recalls that Iranians "live under a corrupt, murderous, and human rights-violating regime, but a military attack by the United States or Israel would only harm the population." She also points out that "the interference of the United States in Iran's internal politics is unacceptable, nor is the double standard of the international community, which allows Israel to perpetrate the genocide in Gaza with impunity and to have developed nuclear weapons outside of any international control." The political scientist asserts: "We Iranians do not want the genocide in Gaza to be covered up with a new war: we want justice and peace to reach everywhere."

Netanyahu, saved 'in extremis' and new massacres in Gaza

Israel's threat against Iran coincides with a new episode in the internal political crisis threatening Netanyahu's government. This morning, the Knesset rejected a motion to dissolve Parliament and call early elections by 61 votes to 53: the governing coalition of the right and the far right, and with it, the political career of the prime minister accused of war crimes by the International Criminal Court, will survive at least another week. The motion was presented by the parties representing the ultra-Orthodox, who oppose their recruitment for religious reasons, at a time when the Israeli army is struggling to secure the soldiers it needs to simultaneously maintain the genocide in Gaza, the occupation of the West Bank, and the invasions of Iemban and Lebanon.

Sources at Al-Awda Hospital in central Gaza have reported that Israeli soldiers have again fired on Palestinians who were collecting food at the distribution point in the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), the mechanism imposed by Israel and the United States to sideline the UN and independent NGOs, and which places food in the hands of mercenary companies. At least 13 dead and 200 wounded arrived at the hospital, adding to the 57 killed Tuesday by Israeli troops at another distribution point. The GHF has accused Hamas of killing five of its Palestinian workers in an attack on a bus.