What is Putin seeking with his visit to India?

MoscowVladimir Putin had not traveled to India for four years. Before the invasion of Ukraine, he and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi exchanged annual visits to strengthen the alliance between their two countries, but the war reshaped this friendship. Moscow found a new buyer in New Delhi for its sanctioned oil and, in turn, had to reduce arms exports. Now Donald Trump's new restrictions on Russian crude oil This forces the Kremlin leader, who increasingly dislikes leaving Russia, to make an exception and fly to India for two days to once again seduce his Asian partner and prove to the West, once again, that he is not alone.

Putin is convinced that Europe and the United States have failed in their attempt to isolate him from the rest of the world. The relationship with India allows him to project the image of a multipolar world, in which a self-absorbed West is not the center of everything, while Russia cultivates ties with powers across the globe. However, beyond fitting into the Kremlin's geopolitical vision, in practice, necessity compels the Russian president to seek ways to secure funding for a never-ending war Long live the sanctions.

Europe has tried to persuade Modi to criticize the invasion of Ukraine, but the Indian prime minister has remained unmoved, calling for dialogue between both sides. In this way, he avoids confronting Putin and, at the same time, does not sever ties with the West. India seeks to maintain so-called "strategic autonomy"Without closing any doors or depending on anyone, although the arrival of Trump, with his 50% tariffs on imports of Indian products and his secondary sanctions, complicates matters. The Russian leader's visit, therefore, opens the possibility for him to demonstrate that he remains an ally of Russia and that he does not succumb to American pressure.

Oil and weapons

Since the White House announced sanctions in late October against anyone doing business with Russia's two major oil companies, Lukoil and Rosneft, India's main refineries have halted purchases of Russian crude, and some have already announced they do not plan to resume them. It is no coincidence that, in addition to Putin, the Russian delegation includes the heads of some of the sanctioned hydrocarbon companies. All of them are offering increasingly larger discounts to potential Indian buyers.

Before the war, India only purchased 1% of its oil from Russia. This figure climbed to almost 40% in 2025 and is now expected to fall drastically. The paradox is that, according to the Indians, in 2022 it was the Americans who discreetly encouraged them to buy Russian oil for fear of a global rise in fuel prices. Meanwhile, the Modi government has signed an agreement to significantly increase gas imports from the United States. Putin also wants to avoid losing his privileged position as India's largest arms supplier. In recent years, New Delhi has been signing arms contracts with Washington and Paris because Moscow dedicates virtually all of its production to war. While in 2010, 72% of the weapons India bought came from Russia, now that figure is only 36%. For all these reasons, the Kremlin wants to finalize the sale of new S-400 air defense systems. These Russian missiles were crucial for India in the brief conflict with Pakistan in May. In addition, the Russian president, who is also accompanied by the defense minister and executives from the state arms export conglomerate, will try to sell them more Russian fighter jets. However, Modi is interested in reducing his dependence on imports and prefers to propose the joint production of Su-57 fighter jets and expanding the shared production of AK-203 rifles. India does not want to depend on Russia.

The Indian prime minister doesn't want his relationship with the Kremlin to be so unequal. Trade between the two countries has increased fivefold since 2020, but while Indian exports to Russia amount to about $5 billion, Russian exports to India reach almost $70 billion, primarily due to oil. Modi hopes that, in return, Moscow will buy more pharmaceuticals, machinery, services, and automobiles from India.

Putin needs to consolidate India as his second most important market, behind China.and conduct business in rubles and rupees to circumvent sanctions. On the other hand, Indian workers could help alleviate Russia's growing labor shortage, exacerbated by restrictions on Central Asian immigrants. The biggest question is how the Kremlin will persuade the Indian prime minister to resume purchasing Russian oil, given the looming influence of Trump.