Zelensky's strategy to collapse the Russian oil industry

MoscowUkrainian attacks on Russian oil facilities have become almost daily. Since early August, waves of drones have targeted the country's main refineries, triggering an unprecedented crisis: skyrocketing gasoline prices, closed gas stations, lines for gas, and ration coupons, which have become everyday occurrences for citizens who find it increasingly difficult to ignore the fact that they are at war.

This is one of Volodymyr Zelensky's objectives: to make Russians feel like victims of the conflict. According to the Ukrainian president, "fires at refineries and oil export terminals are the most effective sanctions." Kiev primarily targets plants that produce fuel for domestic demand, but has also begun to impact the ports from which Russia ships crude oil abroad, which is crucial to its economy.

According to American energy expert Thomas O'Donnell, this campaign has Washington's approval. After noting Vladimir Putin's refusal to agree to peace, Donald Trump has reportedly given Zelensky the green light to strike Russia where it can do the most damage. This would explain why, since the end of August, Ukraine has attacked two of Russia's three main oil terminals for the first time. It would also make sense of the US leader's obsession with having NATO countries completely halt hydrocarbon purchases from Moscow as a condition for imposing sanctions, interpreted in Europe as a new appeasement maneuver by the White House vis-à-vis the Kremlin. "For Russia, exporting is an existential issue; Putin is cornered," the professor assures.

Attacks on Deep Russia

In recent months, Ukrainian intelligence services have attacked nearly two-thirds of the 38 major refineries. They have managed to hit the Ryazan plant near Moscow, one of the largest gasoline producers, five times, and this week they damaged the Tyumen plant in Siberia, 2,100 kilometers from the Ukrainian border, in the longest-range attack by a suicide drone since the start of the invasion.

According toKommersanteThe facilities paralyzed by Kiev's actions account for 20% of the country's refining capacity and have caused a 10% drop in total fuel production. The wave of unmanned aerial vehicles targeting the Russian oil industry began in the middle of the summer holidays, coinciding with the harvest season, the time of year with the highest demand for gasoline. Fuel prices soared on the stock market, and the crisis soon spread to the retail market, where they remain at a record high.

As a result, many gas stations have had to close. The analysis firm OMT-Consult estimates that 360 establishments have had to close their doors, 2.6% of the nearly 14,000 open across Russia. The supply problems are being most noticeable in Crimea. On this occupied peninsula, almost half of the pumps have been shut down, authorities have imposed a fuel supply limit of 20 liters per person per day, and ration coupons have been distributed. In southern Russia, 14% of gas stations have also closed, and while the supply crisis has so far avoided reaching Moscow, shortages have become evident in several areas of the country.

Everything is under control, according to the Kremlin

The Kremlin is trying to downplay the alarm and assures that it is taking "the necessary measures." For example, the ban on gasoline exports has been extended until 2026, and fuel imports from countries such as China, South Korea, and Singapore have been forced. Zelensky recently joked that Russia is now "a gas station country that imports, not sells, gasoline."

However, Russian experts do not believe the situation will lead to an economic crisis. "A total collapse of the Russian economy is unlikely in the short term, but the risks are real and growing," Kazi Sohag, a researcher at Ural Federal University, told ARA. According to Professor O'Donnell, the gasoline shortage "exacerbates existing problems" and affects the transport of goods and factories that run on fuel.

The Russian government has set the end of October as the date to eliminate the disruptions in gasoline supplies, but experts are not so optimistic. On his Telegram channel, Kiril Rodionov writes that it is necessary to "ensure the full security" of the refineries and "negotiate the lifting of sanctions" on the machinery. Ukraine is not only hitting at a faster rate than Russian workers when it comes to repairing the damage, but the sanctions are leaving Moscow without the necessary equipment to rebuild the plants and resume gasoline production.