Vital elections in Armenia: "They are turning our country into the battlefield of the great powers"

MoscowThis Sunday, Armenia will hold its first elections since Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan decided to leave the Russian orbit, convinced that his historical ally was no longer capable of guaranteeing its security. In recent years, Armenia has embarked on an unprecedented course towards Europe and the United States in search of new partners, and Western leaders openly support the current government, which is the favorite for re-election. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin has launched a campaign of economic pressure to sow fear among the population.

Pashinyan continues to not understand that in 2023 Russian peacekeepers did not defend the Armenians of Nagorno-Karabakhthe campaign visits of Western leadersDespite everything, Putin was not at all pleased by the campaign visits by Western leaders to the Armenian capital. The Russian president has issued a warning: “The crisis in Ukraine began with a situation similar to what is happening now in Armenia.” In recent weeks, the Kremlin has increased pressure on Yerevan and threatens to cut off its oil and gas supply if the Armenian government insists on moving closer to Europe. At the same time, Russian authorities have begun to introduce bans on the import of fruits, vegetables, fish, mineral water, brandy, or flowers from the Caucasian country.

“A complete break with Russia would be neither economically nor politically realistic,” Hacopian points out, aware that the commercial and labor ties between the two countries have been very close since the Soviet era. Putin has demanded a referendum from Pashinyan on membership in the European Union, a step the prime minister considers premature. Furthermore, experts believe that joining the EU is merely a ploy to negotiate with the Kremlin. Giragosian describes it as “a strategic bluff,” while Hacopian calls it a “fantasy.”

The prime minister presents himself as the only one capable of guaranteeing Armenia's survival in a hostile environment, in the midst of the post-war period, but the pro-Russian opposition warns that it is precisely his distancing from Moscow that endangers the country's sovereignty. “They are turning Armenia into the battlefield of the great powers – the veteran journalist Hamo Moskofian tells ARA – we will be annihilated immediately, nothing will remain of Armenia.” And he asks: “Will the Europeans help us as they helped Ukraine? Who will die for Armenia? Nobody, they only hold a grudge against Russia.” Other analysts doubt Putin's belligerence. Giragosian believes that Pashinyan will be content with “keeping his head down and not provoking Russia unnecessarily.”

The price of peace

The peace process that Yerevan and Baku embarked on in August 2025 under the mediation of Donald Trump also does not generate unanimity. Giragosian speaks of "unprecedented" progress and emphasizes that Armenia will enjoy "more strategic importance than ever," as, as part of the agreement to end forty years of conflict, a land corridor is planned to be built that would open the borders of Turkey and Azerbaijan after more than three decades. In contrast, Moskofian believes that this infrastructure is only intended to isolate Iran and Russia, "which have always helped Armenia," and criticizes that the United States has signed a contract with Pashinyan for the exploitation of rare earth minerals, as they did with Ukraine. Hacopian, for his part, points out that many of the nationalists critical of the government reproach him for "submitting" to Ilham Aliyev's Azerbaijani regime.

Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018 after a revolution that overthrew an oligarchic system, has lost part of the popularity he had in 2021. At that time, he won the elections with 53% of the votes, but the defeat in the war with Azerbaijan has taken its toll. He now needs a two-thirds majority to remove the claim to Nagorno-Karabakh from the Constitution, a condition imposed by Baku and which he is willing to concede as a way to guarantee peace and the sovereignty of the nation. 

Polls place the current prime minister with around 30% of the votes, with a large advantage over the main opponent, the billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, who would obtain between 6% and 8% of the votes and who, to make matters worse, is formally ineligible because he has a Russian passport. Meanwhile, former Prime Minister Robert Kocharyan, former leader of Karabakh and considered close to Moscow, would get around 4%.