Trump orders to sink any Iranian ship attempting to mine the Strait of Hormuz

WashingtonEvery day that passes, the ceasefire empties more of its meaning. The US president Donald Trump has ordered the navy to "shoot to kill" any ship that places mines in the Strait of Hormuz. He announced this Thursday through a post on Truth Social –as is customary– and said that the US army "will not hesitate" to attack ships attempting to mine the strait. He also indicated that he has equally given orders for minesweeper vessels to "triple" their efforts to ensure the strait is safe for navigation.

However, internal Pentagon projections are that it will take at least six months to completely clear the passage. But even if all the mines were removed, instability and the double blockade would continue to be a deterrent for shipping companies and insurers. Restoring confidence when Washington has lost credibility as a stabilizing power is not that simple.

The Iranian blockade in Hormuz, and the subsequent US counter-blockade, have turned the area into a ticking time bomb. For every new ship intercepted by the US or the Revolutionary Guard, the region plunges a little further into the abyss of war. This Wednesday, Iran intercepted three boats attempting to cross its cordon without coordinating with the Revolutionary Guard, as was recorded in the ceasefire accepted on April 7. In parallel, Washington has also continued to intercept more ships with Iranian flags both in Hormuz and in other areas. Early this Thursday morning, the army boarded another in the Indian Ocean. It is a flagless tanker, the M/T Majestic X, which reportedly departed from Iran, according to the Department of Defense.

Anti-aircraft defenses in Tehran

Amidst an indefinite truce that Trump unilaterally extended and that Tehran says it does not accept, it seems that all that remains is to wait to see what will be the spark that will set the entire region ablaze again. This Thursday night, alarms went off when Iranian media reported that air defenses had been activated in Tehran to attack "hostile targets." The Fars agency later stated that small drones had been detected in various locations across the country.

Israel was quick to clarify that it had not launched any attack against Iran, after Defense Minister Israel Katz had said that the Israeli government was awaiting "the green light" from the US to resume the war against Iran and "complete the elimination of the Jamenei dynasty."

In another post on Truth Social, Trump also lashed out at the Iranian regime and insisted that it is divided. "Iran is having a lot of trouble figuring out who their leader is! They just don't know! The infighting between the "hardliners" who have been losing badly on the battlefield, and the "moderates" who are not moderate at all (but are gaining respect!), is crazy," he wrote.

Iran's President Masoud Pezeshkian responded by assuring that the Iranian people are not divided. "In Iran, there are no 'hardliners' or 'moderates.' We are all Iranians and revolutionaries," he wrote on X, adding: "With iron unity of nation and state and obedience to the Supreme Leader, we will make the aggressor regret it."

When he unilaterally extended the truce on Tuesday, Trump took refuge in the narrative that internal divisions within Iran were making it difficult for Tehran to present a solid proposal. Thus, he extended the pause until they were able to deliver an offer.

The reality in Iran, however, seems very different from what the magnate wants to show. The war, and the assassination of many of the leaders of the ayatollahs' summit –some more moderate figures, such as Ali Larijani– have favored the hardline and more radical wing. Likewise, Tehran has made clear for days what its condition is to return to the negotiating table: that Trump lift the military cordon in Hormuz. Which has not happened. In fact, this Thursday it has insisted again that the US has "total control over the strait" and that "it is sealed until Iran is able to make a deal." The siege on the strait is to inflict economic damage on the Iranians, despite the fact that the Treasury Department has extended the partial lifting of sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil transported by sea.

According to the vice-president of the Iranian Parliament, Haji Babai, the ayatollahs' regime has begun to receive the first revenues from the collection of the toll that Tehran claims to have imposed in the Strait of Hormuz. The total amount that Iran would have collected is not yet known, and it has already been deposited in the country's Central Bank, according to the Iranian agency Tasnim.

Uncertainty about negotiations

The diplomatic path remains stalled. On Wednesday, Trump said in an interview with the New York Post that there could be "good news" within the next 72 hours, but there has been no movement or statement to suggest that talks could resume this weekend. Still in another message on Truth Social, Trump said today that he feels no pressure to end the war. "I have all the time in the world, but Iran does not. Time is running out!", he added.

Iran, however, reiterates that it will not negotiate as long as the U.S. blocks its ports. "The non-fulfillment of commitments, blockades, and threats are the main obstacles to genuine negotiations," said Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian on Wednesday.

And, for now, there has been no further news about Vice President J.D. Vance's suspended trip to Islamabad with the rest of the U.S. delegation. In principle, the administration had said it could resume by the end of this week, depending on the diplomatic efforts of Pakistan, the mediating country, to bring positions closer. This Thursday, the Pakistani government assured that it is making "all possible efforts, at all levels" to save the second round of negotiations and said it expects "positive progress from Iran".

Meanwhile, the U.S. continues to deploy military personnel in the region. Before the ceasefire, the Pentagon had already mobilized additional troops and has continued to do so during the truce. It is expected that by the end of the month, about 10,000 extra soldiers will have arrived, joining the 50,000 that the Pentagon has said it has mobilized globally in operations to counter Iran.