Trump foresees escalating attacks on Iran in the coming weeks: "We will return them to the stone age"

WashingtonA speech that could have been a Truth Social. All the expectation that Donald Trump had generated around Wednesday night's appearance has been reduced to a 20-minute intervention that seemed like a summary of all the statements from previous days. The president has once again said that he expects to end the war in the next two or three weeks, that he is negotiating with the supposed new Iranian regime whose identity he has not even revealed, and that the United States is very close to achieving its objectives. The president is trying to buy time for a war that, according to his own forecasts, should have already ended.

"Thanks to the progress we have made, I can say tonight that we are on track to achieve all our military objectives very soon," Trump said. And he added: "Over the next two or three weeks we will hit them very hard. In the coming weeks we will return them to the Stone Age, where we belong."

Far from offering any kind of update or clarification, the appearance raises even more questions about the future of the war. Especially regarding the forecast of an escalation of attacks in the coming days, considering that the Pentagon has already mobilized 7,000 additional soldiers to the region. Trump has made no mention of these new troops destined for the Middle East. Both the two marine units and the elite paratroopers of the 82nd Airborne Division are specialized in ground operations. The group of marines on board the USS Tripoli has already arrived in the area last weekend, and the other group on board the USS Boxer is expected to arrive within the same timeframe of one or two weeks.

It has taken a month of conflict and the price of gasoline in the US to exceed 4 dollars per gallon (3.78 liters) for Trump to finally address the nation. The day after attacking Tehran jointly with Israel, Trump limited himself to making several announcements on Truth Social. Not even when the first soldier casualties occurred did the Republican convene any press conference. The only thing that has made him step into the spotlight has been the widespread concern on the street about the price of gasoline.

Trump has tried to send a message of calm to Americans about the rise in oil prices. "The United States has never been better economically prepared to face this threat. You all know that we built the strongest economy in history. We are experiencing it right now," he said. War is an abstract concept for a good part of citizens, but seeing how the price at the gas pump rises every day is a tangible fact that generates more unease each day.

It is not known if the president's words will have served as a consolation for citizens, but for the markets it has become clear that they have not. At the end of the speech, the price of the barrel of crude oil price has skyrocketed by 5% to settle again at 106 dollars. The price of oil had fallen shortly before the speech. Investors had hoped that Trump would announce the end of the war or a similar scenario.

No details of the new regime

"Regime change was never our objective. We never talked about regime change, but it has happened because all of its original leaders are dead," Trump stated. This fact is false from the outset: only bombing Iran on February 28th called on Iranians to take to the streets and bring about regime change. Even when they were still negotiating with the ayatollahs, Trump posted on Truth Social about the need to provoke regime change if an agreement was not reached. Despite again stating that there is a new regime in Iran "less radical and much more reasonable," Trump has not provided any further details about who this new group leading the nation is supposed to be. For the moment, the only interlocutor known to exist is members of the Revolutionary Guard and other regime officials who are still alive, who have repeatedly denied the alleged negotiations that Washington defends.

Trump was once again referring to alleged diplomatic contacts with this new regime and recalled the ultimatum to attack Iranian power plants if an agreement was not reached before April 6th: "If during this period of time there is no agreement, we have key targets in sight. If there is no agreement, we will bomb every one of their power plants [...] And there is nothing they can do to stop it because they do not have anti-aircraft defense systems, their radar is 100% annihilated. We are an unstoppable military force." The president took the opportunity to repeat the phrase he told Volodymyr Zelensky during the argument in the Oval Office: "We have all the cards and they have none."

Despite discussing supposed negotiations with Iran, Trump made no reference to the letter published by President Masoud Pezeshkian shortly before his speech. In the letter, Pezeshkian asked Americans to truly consider what the objective of this war is and how it serves American interests. "Is America First part of the US government's priorities today? I invite you to look beyond the disinformation machinery," says the text, published in English and Persian. Pezeshkian hit a nerve with the most critical sector of Trumpism regarding the war, describing Washington as a "proxy" of Israel that has allowed itself to be drawn into a conflict that only serves Tel Aviv's interests.

Pezeshkian emphasized how the regime has shown itself prepared to continue in a war of attrition. Nevertheless, he also seemed to extend a hand to Trump for a possible dialogue: "Today the world is at a crossroads: continuing on the path of confrontation is more futile and costly than ever. The choice between confrontation and negotiation is real and has consequences." It is not clear, however, what value Pezeshkian's offer holds, given that within the ayatollahs' regime, the supreme authority is the Supreme Leader.

Currently, the position is held by Ali Khamenei's son, Mojtaba Khamenei, and there is no indication that the letter has his approval or was commissioned by him. In fact, the letter once again added confusion to the conflicting statements from both sides. On Wednesday morning, Trump had stated that the Iranians had offered him a ceasefire, a fact that has been quickly denied by the regime.

The Iranians have long lost reasons to see Washington as a reliable interlocutor. On Wednesday afternoon, they proved it again: according to Iranian media reports, former Foreign Minister Kamal Kharazi had been injured in an attack on residential buildings in Tehran. Kharazi is considered a moderate politician and, according to Iranian officials, had been one of the supervisors of diplomatic contacts with Pakistan for a possible meeting between regime officials and Vice President JD Vance.

Hormuz and NATO, marginal issues

Trump's references to the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz have been scarce, and all to imply that it is not a US problem. Even though it was indeed provoked by Washington. "We are doing incredibly well in the production and sale of large quantities of oil and gas, with the second largest reserves on the planet after the United States of America. We are now totally independent of the Middle East and, even so, we are there to help. We don't have to be there. We don't need their oil. We don't need anything they have, but we are there to help our allies," Trump said.

Reopening the Strait of Hormuz seems to have gone from being one of Trump's top priorities to practically being collateral damage that he disregards. The shift makes sense: the United States is looking for a decisive blow in the war that will allow them to quickly claim victory. The White House has been hitting a wall for weeks regarding Hormuz, and getting it unblocked does not seem like an achievable goal right now; neither through diplomatic nor military means. So, little by little, the administration is abandoning the goal it had initially set.

Criticizing European allies for not having helped him in his military endeavor, moreover, has another subtext: it means loading them with the responsibility of unleashing the mess he has caused in the region. Meanwhile, indirectly, it gives him more ammunition to attack NATO. However, although Trump spent all Wednesday sounding the possibility of withdrawing the US from the Alliance, he made no mention of the fact during his speech.