Trump backtracks on his ultimatum to force Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and says he is negotiating with the regime

Washington/BarcelonaDonald Trump's ultimatums are being blown away by the wind, swept off their feet by reality. After having the world on tenterhooks since Saturday Tehran gave a deadline of 48 hours To reopen the passage of oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, under the threat of bombing its power plants and nuclear facilities, the president has backtracked via social media. In a message to Truth Social this Monday, he asserted that, after two days of "very good and productive" talks with Iran, he ordered the military to postpone any attack against Iranian energy infrastructure for at least five days. These days will be used to continue negotiations. Speaking to reporters as he left Palm Beach to return to Washington, Trump added that his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and special envoy Steve Witkoff are leading the talks with Iran and that the ayatollahs have agreed not to develop a nuclear weapon. According to the tycoon, the negotiations will continue this Monday by phone, and the Kushner-Witkoff team is speaking with a "very important" person in Tehran, but he did not reveal who. However, the tycoon has said that he is not the new supreme leader. Iran took minutes to celebrate this as a setback, and Tehran state agencies denied that the regime is negotiating anything with Washington.

Trump's threat represented an escalation, and senior Iranian political and military officials had threatened to attack energy infrastructure throughout the region and completely close the Strait of Hormuz, a maritime bottleneck through which 20% of Iran's global shipping traffic passes. The Iranian Security Council threatened this morning of mining the strait, where it has so far allowed passage to some ships from allied countries. Against this backdrop, Asian markets opened the week with sharp losses, while the price of Brent crude rose to $114 a barrel, with analysts predicting it could climb to $150 or $200 if the escalation is not halted. Tehran had also threatened the Gulf petro-monarchies with playing a very dangerous card: attack the desalination plants in the region on which the water supply dependsThe ultimatum expired at midnight between Monday and Tuesday, Catalan time, 3:00 AM in Tehran. Trump's announcement—to which the markets responded immediately with relief and a drop in the price of crude oil below $100 a barrel—also left the door open to a "total and complete solution to the war." The Iranian news agency quickly celebrated Trump's "backtracking," and the Iranian embassy in Kabul attributed it to "Iran's forceful threats." Tehran even denied Trump's claims about the supposed ongoing talks, stating that "there is no direct or indirect connection" between Iran and the United States.

Trump's message also leaves unclear how a solution to the conflict can be reached. This Saturday marked the fourth week of the conflict, the timeframe initially set by Washington for an objective that has shifted over time: from the initial push for regime change through the assassination of Supreme Leader Ayaelillah Ali Kiah and the use of ballistic missiles, to reducing the threat posed to Israel and US interests in the region.

The targets have been lowered as Iran's actions have increased the economic cost of the war for the United States and its allies in the region, both Israel and especially the Gulf petro-monarchies. Now, in reality, Trump says he is talking to the same regime that three weeks ago claimed was doomed. The fact is, the ayatollahs' regime has survived the assassination of its leaders and military and intelligence personnel and still holds military cards to provoke a global energy crisis. Trump's latest move would indicate that he is now looking for a way out of the war, having failed to assemble a coalition of countries willing to help him militarily open the strait.

The military front shows no signs of letting up

Meanwhile, attacks have continued across the region. The Israeli military has claimed to have launched a wave of large-scale attacks against infrastructure in Tehran. Loud explosions were heard in the center, south, and east of the capital, as well as in the western city of Karaj. In the port city of Bandar Abbas, a state broadcasting station was attacked, killing one employee. Residential buildings were also bombed in the northwestern Iranian city of Urmia, and rescue teams are searching for people under the rubble, according to the state-run Nour News Agency. US Central Command (CENTCOM) said it destroyed a turbine engine manufacturing plant in Qom province, in north-central Iran, which it said was used to produce drone and aircraft components for the Revolutionary Guard, the regime's paramilitary force. Iran has continued its attacks on Gulf countries, launching two ballistic missiles toward Riyadh. One was shot down, and the other landed in a desert area. A spokesman for the Revolutionary Guard claimed that its forces attacked Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia and the US Fifth Fleet base in Bahrain. Iranian missiles were also intercepted in the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. In Israel, there were alerts in Jerusalem and explosions in the center of the country. The death toll from Saturday's Iranian attack on the cities of Dimona (home to the country's main nuclear facility) and Arad rose to 180. In the parallel war being waged by Israel in southern Lebanon, which has already resulted in at least 1,029 deaths according to local authorities, including about 100 children, Israeli bombing has intensified in preparation for a ground invasion.