This is how Iran has prepared for this war for years.

BarcelonaTwo weeks later the start of Operation Epic Fury against IranMany questions remain unanswered, but one thing is clear: President Donald Trump has not gotten the war he wanted. His statements in recent days, which have suggested that he had won the warThese measures are intended to calm financial markets and prepare public opinion for a withdrawal. However, it will not be easy. "We will be the ones to determine when the war ends," they retorted defiantly to the Revolutionary Guard, the regime's praetorian guard, a clear indication that the ayatollahs' regime does not feel defeated.

The Islamic Republic has surprised everyone with its ability to absorb the initial blow, with the assassination of its supreme leader, Ali Khamenei and some forty high-ranking officials, and carry out an effective response. According to military experts, Tehran had been preparing the scenario for a total war against the United States for many years.

Trump probably underestimated the strength of the regime according to the short last summer's warBack then, the Islamic Republic limited itself to launching a choreographed attack on a US base in Qatar, as it later emerged that it had warned Washington in advance. This time, seeing that the ambition of Trump's offensive was greater, and that the threat was existential, it has gone all out.

Perhaps the clearest demonstration of Iran's preparedness and resilience has been the swift and relatively smooth election of Mojtaba Khamenei as the new supreme leaderBut this hasn't been the only effective replacement. Since the summer, when Israel decapitated part of the republic's security and military elite, the regime prepared a contingency plan that included a list of several alternates for all the country's top positions in case they were assassinated. This, combined with the operational independence of the various branches of the security apparatus, has allowed the state to remain operational at all times.

Undoubtedly, Tehran's most effective weapon in this war has been paralysis. maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuzwhich has driven the price of oil above the $100 a barrel barrierThis poses a significant threat to global economic growth. Despite deploying a large portion of its navy, the US has been unable to prevent it. Since the start of the conflict, nearly twenty ships, many of them oil tankers, have been attacked by Iranian forces, either with missiles or drones. Furthermore, in recent days, Iran has reportedly begun laying mines in the waters near the Strait of Hormuz, according to the Pentagon, which could prolong the disruption to maritime trade.

Tehran has also attacked military and civilian installations of its neighbors in the Persian Gulf, almost all of whom are allies of Washington. The Islamic Republic's strategy is to spread the damage of the war to as many actors as possible so that they pressure Trump to end the war, and then be able to proclaim victory by arguing that Washington has failed in its attempt to force "regime change."

While the strategy of closing the Strait of Hormuz was expected, the destruction of US bases, and especially their communication systems, caused by Iranian missile and drone attacks has been more surprising. Although the Pentagon has not provided information on the specific damage, as it is classified information, an analysis by New York TimesSatellite imagery has revealed significant weaknesses in the radar systems of military bases located in several countries, including Kuwait, Jordan, and Qatar. According to the US newspaper, Tehran's initial objective is to neutralize the early warning systems, so that it can then attack them with its fastest and most sophisticated missiles, of which it possesses a limited arsenal. The high number of drone and short-range missile attacks against neighboring states is also aimed at exhausting US interceptors, especially the Patriot and THAAD missile systems. Besides being much more expensive than Iranian drones—more than three million dollars compared to tens of thousands of euros—Tehran is aware that its stockpile of interceptors is dwindling. "It's surprising how quickly they've learned from the lessons of the [summer] war... They've learned that they lack defensive capabilities, such as interceptors," says Vali Nasr, a professor at Johns Hopkins University. Iranian Counterintelligence

The success of the Iranian attacks against radar systems, as well as against some hotels in the region where US officials often stay, rests on sound intelligence gathering. While it is possible that this is the result of the work of Iranian intelligence services, in recent days there has been speculation that Moscow might be providing this type of information to Tehran.

This is the opinion of some sources close to the CIA, as reported by the US network CNN. The reason is that, for Russia, the rThe Iranian regime is an ally in the Middle East, which recently saw its other major regional partner, Bashar al-Assad's Syria was sinking unexpectedly at the end of 2024. With his hands tied by his tribulations in Ukraine, sharing classified information might be the only effective help Putin can provide the ayatollahs.

The Iranian regime's other line of defense, patiently built over years, is a network of Shiite-affiliated militias in several countries in the region. While badly weakened after the war with Israel a year and a half ago, the Lebanese militia Hezbollah has joined the war, attacking Israel with rockets and drones. In addition, the Popular Mobilization Forces, a constellation of armed groups in Iraq, have also acted against US bases and interests in that Arab country neighboring Iran.

However, the militia that had shown the most affiliated military capability in recent years, the Houthis of Yemen, have so far remained on the sidelines of the conflict. One interpretation that explains this fact is its greater independence from Tehran than Hezbollah or the Iraqi militias, as well as his fear of attracting the wrath of Washington and Tel Aviv.

But Nadwa Dawsari, the analyst of Middle East InstituteHe argues that the Houthis' inaction is part of a strategy to preserve them as Tehran's last resort. If the Houthis were to resume their attacks on Red Sea shipping destined for the Suez Canal, the chaos in world trade would already be enormous. All these movements demonstrate that it is a mistake to consider the Iranian regime's elite as a group of "lunatics," as Secretary of State Marco Rubio declared. Certainly, the ayatollahs adhere to an ultraconservative interpretation of Islam and have no compassion when it comes to repressing their population, but in matters of national security and foreign relations, they act as a rational and audacious actor guided by a primary objective: self-preservation.