"I think we have to do it": that's how Trump decided to start the war in Iran

BarcelonaThe scope of the consequences of the war in Iran are still unpredictable. The joint attack by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic on February 28, and the reactivation of Tel Aviv's offensive in Lebanon, have left thousands dead, have set the Middle East ablaze, and have caused an earthquake in the world economy. But how did we get here? Why have the US embarked on a conflict that has lasted almost six weeks? And above all: at what point did Trump decide it was a good idea?

According to an investigation published in the New York Times (NYT), the president made the decision after several meetings with his inner circle, who were mostly wary of a large-scale operation. The vice president, J.D. Vance, conveyed this to Trump, but no one dared to question his instincts when he allowed himself to be seduced by Tel Aviv's plans, which were presented to him by the Israeli prime minister himself in an almost secret meeting in Washington. "It sounds good to me," said the US president when Benjamin Netanyahu explained how he intended to attack Iran.

It was February 11, just seventeen days before the attack was to be consummated. And the discreet meeting was held in the White House crisis room, the so-called Situation Room. The Israeli prime minister spent an hour presenting his war proposal to his North American counterpart and some of his aides, with the help of the director of Mossad, David Barnea, who connected by videoconference. The Israeli plan was based on an "almost certain victory," explain the journalists, and had four steps: kill the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei; neutralize Tehran's military capabilities; promote a popular uprising in Iran; and force the rise of a secular leader in the country.

Netanyahu and his team argued that within weeks the Iranian regime would be so weakened that it could not block the key Strait of Hormuz, as it did in response to the attack. They also assured that it would not retaliate against American interests in neighboring countries, another of the scenarios that reality ended up overriding. Be that as it may, they started from the premise that the risks of not acting were greater than those of starting the war, according to the investigation by the American newspaper.

Israel's "absurd" plans and the risk of Hormuz

The article explains how U.S. intelligence services conveyed to Trump that killing Khamenei and paralyzing Iran's capabilities were feasible objectives, but that the regime change Israel intended was unrealistic. In a meeting, CIA Director John Ratcliffe labeled Netanyahu's presented scenarios as "absurd," and Secretary of State Marco Rubio added: "In other words, they are bullshit." Vice President Vance also expressed notable skepticism, considering the war would be a "disaster," and General Dan Caine, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, concluded that Israelis always tend to "exaggerate" and that "their plans are not always well developed." Furthermore, he warned Trump that a large-scale offensive could drastically deplete U.S. armament reserves and also cautioned about the difficulties in preventing the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's oil circulates.

Despite all these contrary opinions, however, Trump's instincts would have weighed more heavily, as well as his desire to become the president who would end the Iranian theocratic regime. It would also have had to do, according to the article, with his emboldenment by the success of the US operation in Venezuela in January and the kidnapping of its president, Nicolás Maduro. And all this led him to downplay, without great arguments, the possible risks of war. An example is a call with the far-right commentator Tucker Carlson, very close to the president, in which Trump –according to the prestigious US newspaper reveals– told him: "I know you're worried, but everything will be fine [...] Because it always is like that".

The final order, from Air Force One

The last days of February, and after intelligence services informed Israel and the US that Khamenei would meet with other regime officials in broad daylight and fully exposed to an air strike, everything accelerated. On the 26th, two days before the attack, there was a final meeting in the Situation Room, which lasted an hour.There were the president and his chief of staff, Susie Wiles; Vice President Vance, Marco Rubio, and Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth; CIA Director General Caine, and White House Counsel David Warrington. Also Steve Cheung, White House Director of Communications, and Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt.

A decision had to be made and the opinions of those present could be summarized by the one expressed by Vance, as the NYT explains: "You know I think it's a bad idea, but if you want to do it, I'll support you." No one wanted to confront the president, to whom they conveyed that any decision he made would be the right one, and Hegseth, who had the fewest reservations about it, reflected that at some point the Iranians would have to be dealt with and that, therefore, it would be better to do it at that moment. Trump agreed: "I think we have to do it," he said. The next day, 24 hours before starting the war and in a message from Air Force One, the presidential plane, he gave the order to Caine: "Operation Epic Fury is approved. It is not aborted. Good luck."

The NYT account, written by White House correspondents Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman, is based on the content of their book "Regime Change: Inside the Imperial Presidency of Donald Trump", which will be published on June 23rd. It is based on long interviews conducted under condition of anonymity and reveals the concern about the war and even the rejection of many senior officials in the US administration.