The world asks: do we have the stomach to fight?

The scene took place last September in a refined restaurant in Strasbourg, a very European city. Two prominent voices from the European Parliament were discussing tanks, drones, and the risk of war in Europe while enjoying a meal. chicken in cream sauceThe conversation proceeded normally among those at the table: politicians and journalists. "Does Europe have enough soldiers to fight?" "European armies must modernize; tanks no longer win wars.""If Russia were to attack us, with the weaponry we have, we could only hold out for a few days." These were slogans heard during dinner.

Hours later, in the plenary session of the European Parliament, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, sounded forceful: "Europe is at war. [...] Europe must fight," "We will defend every last square inch of our territory," "Does Europe have the stomach to fight?" The fourth person applauded the speech of the German woman, dressed in a military green blazer. During that early morning, the Polish army had shot down Russian drones flying over its airspace. Ramifications of the war in Ukraine, a 21st-century European war in which killings have occurred at the pace of World War II.

What would readers of ARA from 15 years ago, when the newspaper was founded, think of these two images? The world, and especially Europe, has changed so much that they would most likely bet it's a work of fiction, a dystopia. fake news, one a concept that, incidentally, we didn't know then as we know it now..

The ARA's fifteenth anniversary comes at a particularly turbulent time on the global stage. The list of emergencies is long and could fill this entire article, so it's more effective to offer a highly generic description using a term that has recently become fashionable: permacrisis, awarded word of the year in 2022 and which refers to "a long period of instability and insecurity resulting from an accumulation of catastrophic events." In other words, the world is in constant turmoil, in transformation, in a state of constant urgency, and we often have the feeling that we are on the brink of disaster, mired in uncertainty, on the cusp of some worse event.

"We don't have a bipolar world, nor a multipolar world, we simply have a chaotic world." The quote is from United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres, in a speech in the summer of 2024 during the Munich Security Conference.

Crescent convulsion

Looking back, the journey since 2010 is somewhat dizzying.During these fifteen years, the headlines of international news have been major, transformative, and often unforeseen: the economic crisis, the Arab Spring uprisings, the refugee crisis, Brexit, Chinese growth, the deaths in the Mediterranean, jihadist attacks in Europe, Trump's victory, the pandemic, the pandemic, the Russian invasion of UkraineThe realization of the climate crisis, the consolidation of the European far right, the rise of artificial intelligence, October 7th and Israel's genocidal war against Gaza, Trump's second victory… The list goes on.

Looking ahead, the path that lies ahead is also dizzying. Trump has shown in the first months of his presidency that he is a more radicalized leaderMore unpredictable, more aggressive: adjectives that also permeate American society. With the war in Ukraine dead-on, the Russian threat to Europe is palpable, while often from Moscow—and now also from Washington— The specter of nuclear war is invoked. The far right, bolstered by the algorithms that now dictate everything, has become accustomed to occupying positions of power within the European Union, and polls indicate that the possibility of a France governed by Le Pen's party and a Germany led by the AfD is highly realistic.

With the fragile ceasefire in Gaza, the Middle East is being reconfigured at Netanyahu's pace while still We are not aware of the political and social consequences of the horror that has been experienced in the StripXi Jinping's China continues to accumulate global power while consolidating alliances that find common ground in challenging Washington and the West. The arrival of artificial intelligence will cause a global earthquake with profound social, political, and economic consequences. The climate crisis remains the great existential challenge despite the persistent lack of political will to curb it… And so on and so forth, but space is limited in this article.

This last paragraph, which tends towards pessimism, makes me think of a book: Factfulness: The world is better than you thinkby the physicist and academic Hans RoslingThe book, which Bill Gates liked so much that he offered to give a copy to any university graduate who requested one via email, demonstrated that society tends to think the world is poorer, more dangerous, and less healthy than it actually is. It also argued that the global landscape, especially regarding rights and stability, has never been better.

The problem is that Rosling published this book in the spring of 2018, before major global crises such as the pandemic or the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Rosling is Swedish. There are few countries like Sweden –which abandoned its historical neutrality to become part of NATO– that better symbolize the European and global paradigm shift.

Crisis of the futurists

On November 28, 2010, the first issue of ARA dedicated page 37 to an analysis of the 10 most urgent challenges for "the new world." The list was as follows: The geostrategic Arctic / hunger / the risks of cyberspace / wars in Africa / global governance in doubt / the climate crisis / Latin American counterpower / the democratization of China and Russia / the impact of the crisis on the welfare state / instability in the Middle East

Some tracks already hinted at what was to come. Many tracks that were to come, possibly the most important ones, were undetectable at the time. International politics and futurology are not good friends.

The world in 2010 was marked by the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. The global economy was recovering slowly and unevenly: in the West, distrust of institutions and traditional politics was growing, while in Asia, China was emerging as a major economic power. In the EU, the debt crisis was hitting hard and generating tensions about solidarity within the bloc. Obama's United States was beginning its withdrawal from Iraq and was also moving away from Afghanistan. In the Middle East and North Africa Social tensions were building up that would soon erupt in the Arab Spring.

Pol Morillas, director of CIDOB, points out an interesting detail: the birth of the ARA coincided with the moment when the ravages of the economic crisis were beginning to become evident in the fractures of Western societies. "And it is then, in fact, that populist parties gain strength because they feed off that discontent of the population."

Trump's arrival at the White House in 2016—and his return last year—has been the most evident example of the normalization of stridency. The rise of populism and its ramifications in current leadership explain some of today's dangers and challenges. And if we continue with Trump as a global icon of the movement, The result is a stain that spreads everywhere: the personification of politics, the ode to strong leadership, the America firstThe boycott of multilateralism, the diplomacy of egocentrism, the exploitation of post-truth, the polarization in politics and on the street, the heightened unpredictability, the contempt for traditional institutions and formulas.

It would be inappropriate not to highlight the delicate position in which Europe finds itselfSince February 24, 2022, the start of Vladimir Putin's invasion, the Old Continent has faced a truly existential crisis. The awakening brought about by the return of war to Europe—the end of the age of innocence, as Margaritis Schinas defined it—has forced the European Union to have no choice but to grow up and work towards emancipating itself from all dangerous dependencies. Largely freed from the Kremlin's poisonous energy, the next step is even more complicated: to break free from the unpredictable protective umbrella of the United States. On the horizon lies the much-anticipated strategic autonomy. Reaching this point, according to European governments, requires taking decisive political measures. Some of these generate misgivings among a segment of the population, such as increasing military spending, reinstating conscription, or openly recommending that European households have survival kits in case of emergencies. Fortunately, The average European in 2025 had not been accustomed to thinking about war.

The fact that the EU has been sidelined from the negotiations on the future of the two most significant wars of the 21st century—Ukraine and Gaza—is another symptom of strategic irrelevance that is causing concern in the corridors of Brussels. There is also concern that this irrelevance could intensify as the geopolitical axis shifts toward Asia, a region that, incidentally, has been accelerating its development in an area predicted to be key to the geopolitics of the future: technology, now dominated by AI.

Manuel Zsaprio, the European Commission's representative in Barcelona, ​​said a few days ago that Europe has shown it can transform this situation into an opportunity. "The EU's objective It must become a guarantor of multilateralism, stability, reliability, and respect for the rule of law." According to Zsapiro, the European Union faces a pivotal moment: the dilemma lies in either dismantling the EU's raison d'être or, conversely, seizing the bull by the horns and strengthening that very raison d'être to ensure its survival.

Cristina Gallach, a journalist and the only Catalan to have held prominent positions at the UN, the EU, and NATO, emphasizes a crucial point: the reality after World War II, when the foundations of the current international system were laid, has changed. "Many new actors have emerged, and others, like the United States, which was central to building the post-1945 system, want to disassociate themselves from what they created. They reject that system because it no longer serves their interests of economic, commercial, and geopolitical dominance." According to Gallach, we are in the midst of a transition, but we have neither the script nor the destination written. How long will this stage last? We don't know.

What has been the most significant change of the last 15 years?

Gallach answers emphatically: "The technological and digital revolution in all its manifestations and impact on daily life. It has impacted every area of our society and continues to do so: work, leisure, human relationships, politics, and geopolitics." And Gallach warns, of course, of the enormous impact that Artificial Intelligence (AI) will have, which already permeates everything.

The global tsunami that has been the arrival of cutting-edge AI makes me think of another book: Farmers and lordsFrom the Greek writer Theodor Kallifatides (winner, incidentally, of the first ARA International Prize). In this magnificent work, in which he tenderly and intelligently recounts his childhood in a Greek—yet universal—village then marked by the occupation of Nazi troops, there is an even more magnificent phrase that, in a way, serves as the closing of this strange article.

The phrase reads: "The world advances a little despite everything, but it never moves forward alone. Because deep down we all yearn for progress to end. At some point in our lives we want to put an end to it." The phrase has many interpretations. Also in international politics.