"Significant progress" at the third meeting between the US and Iran on the nuclear program

BarcelonaThursday's negotiations in Geneva between the United States and Iran had the feel of one of the last chances to avert war. And the messages released at the end seemed hopeful. This was the third meeting since the start of the talks. Talks resumed on the development of Iran's nuclear capabilities February 6th. Three weeks ago, but Donald Trump has made it clear he's in a hurry. Last Thursday, the US president doubled down on the pressure, saying Iran had between ten and fifteen days to accept a deal. Otherwise, he warned, "very bad things" would happen—a threat accompanied by an unprecedented military deployment in the region, the largest in the last thirty years.

Oman's Foreign Minister, Badr bin Hamad en el Busaidi, who has acted as mediator and intermediary in the indirect negotiations, confirmed that today's round—which lasted about five hours—ended "after the United States and significant progress." He said the talks will resume "shortly," following consultations in the respective capitals, and added that next week they will hold "technical-level discussions" in Vienna.

"This has been the most serious and longest conversation we have had with the United States," said Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who is leading his country's delegation. Speaking on Iranian state television, he said the meeting in Vienna will take place on Monday and that there will also be a new round of trilateral negotiations "in less than a week," after the negotiators have shared the details with their governments.

So far, the United States has not made any public statement. The White House's chief negotiators are, as usual, businessmen Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Donald Trump's son-in-law. At the previous meeting, also last week in the Swiss capital, Iran announced a "general understanding" on the main points of negotiations. And today Iran has submitted a detailed proposal that, according to the Tehran government, "eliminates all the pretexts of the United States" regarding its nuclear program.

Both sides started from very different positions: Washington insists that Iran must completely halt its uranium enrichment program and limit the range of its missiles, while Tehran maintains that it has the right to develop nuclear energy for civilian and peaceful purposes. A senior Iranian official told Al Jazeera that the proposal includes reducing uranium stockpiles to low enrichment levels under the supervision of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). In fact, the Omani Foreign Minister also met in Geneva with the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, to discuss the agency's role should an agreement be reached for the inspection of Iranian nuclear facilities.

According to information prior to the meeting, Iran would accept the imposition of certain limitations on its nuclear activities in exchange for the lifting of sanctions. Araghchi said that today's meeting saw "good progress" regarding the nuclear issue and the lifting of sanctions.

Uranium enrichment

As a member of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has the right to enrich uranium as long as it does not use it to produce nuclear weapons. Uranium enrichment is a complex process mastered by only about fifteen countries. At low levels, enriched uranium can fuel power plants, but if it is enriched to approximately 90%, it can be used for nuclear weapons. This Thursday, the country's president, Masoud Pezeshkian, insisted that the Islamic Republic is not seeking to develop atomic weapons. "Trump has said that Iran must clarify that it is not seeking nuclear weapons, but we have said that on multiple occasions," he said, and recalled that the Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, prohibited it in a fatwa issued in the early 2000s: "When he declares it, it means I am not stopping him."

This same Tuesday, during his State of the Union address to Congress, Trump repeated this idea. He asserted that the US airstrikes last June against nuclear facilities "destroyed" Iran's nuclear weapons program, but that Tehran "is starting all over again" and is "once again pursuing its sinister ambitions." However, it has not been possible to verify what impact the bombing actually had on the Iranian program, and Trump has not provided any evidence to support his accusations.

Ballistic missile program

Furthermore, Tehran criticizes Washington for trying to link the nuclear program issue to other matters in order to reduce Iran's military capabilities. The US, for example, aims to limit the range of the country's ballistic missiles. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday that Iran's refusal to discuss this issue is a "big problem" and believes it will have to be addressed "sooner or later," arguing that these missiles "are designed exclusively to attack the US" and pose a risk to it. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the Iranian arsenal includes multiple long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel, such as the Sejil, with a range of 2,000 kilometers. In recent days, Trump has stated that he prefers a diplomatic solution, but has also made it clear that he will not hesitate to use force if he deems it necessary. The threats began in January, when the US president warned he would intervene in Iran to stop the regime's brutal crackdown on the thousands of protesters who took to the streets to demonstrate against the government's handling of the crisis. He later toned down his rhetoric, although he has continued to send warships and aircraft to the seas surrounding the Islamic Republic to pressure Tehran.

The USS Gerald R. Ford, the largest aircraft carrier in the United States, departed port near the Greek island of Crete on Thursday bound for the coast near Haifa, in northern Israel, where it is expected to arrive in the coming hours. The Pentagon has also sent a dozen F-22 fighter jets to Israel, marking the first time Washington has deployed combat aircraft to the country for potential military operations, according to Reuters.

The ayatollahs' regime is facing its worst crisis since the creation of the Islamic Republic in 1979, with an unprecedented economic crisis exacerbated by escalating Western sanctions, which has fueled mass demonstrations. The protests reignited this week among students, coinciding with the start of the new semester, despite the brutal police repression of the January protests, which caused thousands of deaths, although the real number is unknown due to the lack of independent organizations in the country.