The municipal elections, a key test for the far right in France before the presidential elections

ParisThe French return to the polls this Sunday to elect their local representatives. France is holding the first round of municipal elections, votes that don't usually carry national weight. However, this time, the proximity of the presidential elections—scheduled for spring 2027—will mean that the results will be interpreted through the lens of national politics. Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally (RN), a party that has traditionally had a weak local presence, wants the municipal elections to be its springboard to the Élysée Palace. Le Pen and her right-hand man—and likely presidential candidate if she is definitively barred from running—Jordan Bardella, want to translate their strong showing in the recent legislative and European elections into more mayoralties. This won't be easy because the RN's limited local presence means it can't field candidates in a significant number of municipalities. There's an anecdote that perfectly illustrates the situation: Bardella won't be able to vote for a candidate from the party he leads because Garches, the municipality of 17,000 inhabitants where he lives on the outskirts of Paris, doesn't have a candidate from Réagrupament Nacional.

Twice as many candidates

However, the far-right party is fielding its own lists in some 600 municipalities and supporting other candidates in another 162 towns and cities. This is almost double the number from the last municipal elections, but relatively few considering the more than 2,800 municipalities with over 3,500 inhabitants in France. The leadership of the far-right party claims it has prioritized "quality over quantity" and has excluded candidates who had made racist, homophobic, or sexist statements in order to avoid undermining the image of moderation the party wants to project to disguise its far-right ideology. The results of March 22 will serve to gauge RN's ability to reach all territories, a key factor for Le Pen and Bardella's aspirations to win the presidential elections. The party has set as its top priorities retaining Perpignan—the only major city they govern—and winning cities like Nice (where Éric Ciotti, an ally of the National Rally, is running) and Toulon. They also aspire to win France's second-largest city, Marseille. That would be the biggest surprise of the elections. But it's not such a crazy idea: polls place the far-right candidate, Franck Allisio, as the second most voted in the first round with 34% of the vote, only slightly surpassed by the current mayor and left-wing candidate, Benoît Payan (36%). The key will be the alliances formed for the second round.

Battle for Paris

In Paris, whatever the outcome, the elections will mark the end of Socialist Anne Hidalgo's term as mayor after fourteen years. Hidalgo, the daughter of Spaniards who emigrated to France in the early 1960s, was the first woman to lead the French capital, and this time she is not running for reelection, which could lead to a change in the city council. After 25 years of Socialist rule, the Paris City Hall could fall into the hands of the right.

Polls—usually inaccurate before the first round—point to a very close race between Hidalgo's successor, Socialist Emmanuel Grégoire, and the right-wing candidate (The Republicans), former minister Rachida Dati. Grégoire is the unified candidate of the main left-wing parties, with the exception of La France Insoumise (LFI), which is officially considered far-left for the first time. While in other elections the entire left has united behind a single candidate, there will be no alliance with the Unconscionable Party (LFI) in the municipal elections. Their ongoing conflict with the Socialists will prevent it. LFI is presenting its own candidate, Sophia Chikirou.

For the first time, the far right could enter the Paris City Council. The capital has never been comfortable territory for Marine Le Pen, but the other far-right party, Reconquista—led by Éric Zemmour—has presented a candidate, Sarak Knafo, who has been the big surprise of the campaign. Polls give her between 12% and 13% of the vote, enough to advance to the second round. However, Le Pen's candidate has no chance of reaching the second round, according to the polls.

Trivialization of the far right

Knafo has already offered the right wing a coalition for the second round, so if Dati accepts—she has rejected it so far, but we'll have to see what she says after Monday—the right and far right could win control of Paris. This is a realistic scenario that would mean the arrival of the extreme right in the French capital, a consequence of the trivialization of populist and xenophobic parties in France, a process spearheaded by Le Pen and her National Regroupment, and promoted by a right wing that has long since broken the cordon sanitaire. Paradoxically, Le Pen's rival, Éric Zemmour, would benefit in the capital. An alliance between Rachida Dati and either Zemmour's or Le Pen's candidate in Paris "would be a mistake," she warned. Le Monde in his last editorial before the day of reflection.