The Iranian regime attempts to shield itself from the Israeli offensive

BeirutTen days after the start of the direct war between Israel and Iran, the conflict continues with the same intensity, or more. Israel has attacked military targets, nuclear infrastructure, and command centers in Persian territory, while Iran has responded with missiles and drones over northern and central Israel. Iran, such as Hezbollah and Iraqi militias, has avoided direct intervention. Israelis, nor has it expressed any solidarity with Iran. The diplomatic rapprochement initiated in 2023, with Chinese mediation, is at an impasse due to fear of an escalation that would destabilize the region and affect the energy market.

Turkey, which maintains ties with both Israel and Iran, has called for calm.

One of the key points in all this is the impact of Israeli bombing on Iran's military and nuclear infrastructure. According to Western intelligence, Israel has destroyed strategic facilities in Esfahan, Natanz, Kermanshah, and Fordow, including drone hangars, Revolutionary Guard logistics centers, and nuclear laboratories. The death toll reflects the magnitude of the offensive: the NGO Hrana estimates 657 deaths and more than 2,000 injuries, both civilians and military personnel. Meanwhile, the pro-government outlet Nour News reported this Saturday 430 deaths and 3,500 injuries. The regime's latest official tally, dated June 15, only acknowledged 224 deaths. The disparity in the figures and the lack of updated data suggest that the regime is hiding the true scope of the offensive to avoid projecting weakness. In fact, multiple funerals have been held in cities such as Yazd and Shiraz. Meanwhile, in Israel, at least 25 people have died from Iranian attacks.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has appointed new commanders of the Revolutionary Guard in an attempt to show that everything remains under control. According to Iranian media, his recent speeches have been recorded in a bunker, not at his official residence, for fear of Israeli attacks. Meanwhile, the regime has intensified repression and has even arrested members of the security forces for alleged negligence and leaks.

The population, for its part, is facing communication restrictions. The Networks platform announced this Saturday that it will partially restore internet connectivity in the country, after more than 60 hours of government-imposed blockage. Since Wednesday, it has been impossible to connect to websites outside Iran, and VPNs, which Iranians commonly use to access applications such as WhatsApp and Telegram, were also blocked. Authorities initially attributed the blockage to cyberattacks on their systems, but this Saturday they asserted that they had ordered it themselves in order to intercept Israeli drones.

The economic crisis is worsening with the rial falling 18% against the dollar in one week, while the Central Bank tries to stem the devaluation. Prices of basic goods have risen between 12 and 20%, especially outside Tehran, and the government has restricted subsidized food in some provinces. This, along with power outages, sparked small protests in Mashhad and Kerman, with at least 40 arrests, according to the NGO Hrana. Although there are no signs of a mass uprising like the one in 2022, social discontent is resurfacing.

Spain has begun evacuating its citizens from Israel and Iran. The first group arrived Friday night at the Torrejón de Ardoz base in Madrid after being transferred by land to Jordan and Armenia. In total, two flights were organized with nearly 240 people, most of them Spanish. The Minister of Foreign Affairs, European Union and Cooperation, José Manuel Albares, expressed his gratitude for the diplomatic efforts to guarantee their safety.

This Saturday, Israel launched new attacks against targets in Kermanshah, Tabriz, and Esfahan, killing at least four Revolutionary Guard commanders and damaging several nuclear facilities. For its part, Iran responded with a wave of missiles and drones that hit Beersheba, Haifa, and the Negev, leaving nineteen injured. For the first time, an Iranian drone managed to penetrate Israeli defenses. Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu has stated that more than half of Iran's missile infrastructure has been destroyed. Meanwhile, delegations from the United States and Qatar have met in Doha to seek a diplomatic solution to the conflict. So far, there has been no visible progress.