What car will you be able to buy from 2035 onwards?

The change of course in European guidelines on combustion engine vehicles from 2035 onwards and that They eliminate the ban on diesel and gasoline vehicles. It has generated quite a few doubts about what new cars Europeans will be able to buy in a horizon of just ten years.

First, it's important to note that while the European Commission has lifted the ban on the sale of vehicles with diesel and gasoline combustion engines, it has also raised the emissions target threshold for manufacturers wishing to sell their cars in Europe. In short, the new system doesn't measure individual vehicle bans, but rather sets a CO₂ average emissions threshold for manufacturers that must represent a 90% reduction compared to the current thresholds, established in 2021. This means that if the cars a particular manufacturer currently sells cannot exceed a certain threshold, from 2035 onwards, manufacturers will not be able to exceed an average emissions of 12 g/km of CO₂. In practical terms, a manufacturer like Seat or Nissan would need to sell between eight and ten zero-emission electric vehicles to offset the average emissions of each combustion engine vehicle sold.

Secondly, this new threshold, much more restrictive than the current one, will mean that de facto Most manufacturers are choosing not to market combustion engine vehicles that increase their average CO₂ emissions, as the fines for exceeding this limit will be very high. In fact, the European Commission anticipates a penalty of 95 euros for each extra gram per vehicle sold by the brand after the new regulations come into effect. For example, a brand like Seat that markets a vehicle like the Ibiza (with average emissions of 115 g/km) would have to pay 9,785 euros to the European administration in fines. Last year, Seat sold a total of 106,700 units of the Seat Ibiza, which, starting in 2035, would result in a fine of 1,044,059,500 euros—an unmanageable figure not only for Seat, but for any European manufacturer at this time.

What cars will the brands sell?

With the figures and potential fines facing major manufacturers now clear, it's evident that while combustion engine cars won't be formally banned, their availability will be very limited and confined to specific luxury segments, such as sports cars from Ferrari, Porsche, or Lamborghini, for example. Ultimately, sports car manufacturers will continue to produce and sell combustion engine vehicles, while mainstream manufacturers will have to specialize in the production of electric vehicles.

From 2035 onwards, most manufacturers will opt to market plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), with increasingly larger electric motors and batteries, and real-world electric ranges that will surely exceed 200 kilometers (compared to the current 50 or 60 kilometers). Plug-in hybrids will also continue to use a combustion engine, but it will likely become increasingly smaller and with lower displacement to minimize fuel consumption and emissions. Conversely, conventional hybrid or mild hybrid cars, with real-world emissions of around 100 g/km, appear to have no room for further development once the new regulations come into effect.

The other major area that manufacturers will explore in the coming years is extended-range electric vehicles. These are electric cars that use gasoline not only to power the engine, but also to generate energy and charge the car's batteries, thus optimizing thermal efficiency and drastically reducing emissions.

Finally, fully electric cars will have to gain prominence and sales share, especially in the utility and urban vehicle segment, with more competitive prices, greater ranges and a coherent charging network sized to the real needs of the vehicle fleet.

Some brands like Toyota and Hyundai continue to work on hydrogen and fuel cells as a viable alternative to oil. This fuel only emits water vapor, but the current challenge is generating green hydrogen sustainably and at a competitive price. Other alternatives, such as biofuels or synthetic fuels, seem like little more than a pipe dream at the moment, due to their actual production costs and environmental impact.

And what about combustion engine cars?

Although, as we've mentioned, the new EU regulations don't prohibit the sale of combustion engine vehicles, manufacturers will be reluctant to sell models with diesel or gasoline engines to avoid hefty fines from the European Commission. It's true that some specific models, such as sports cars or commercial vehicles like tractors or machinery, will still use diesel or gasoline engines paired with some form of hybridization to reduce CO₂ emissions, but their use will become increasingly limited and confined to the luxury sports car segment.