The diaspora decides the future of Kosovo in a new election rerun
The broken promises of the past four years and the inability of Prime Minister Albin Kurti to negotiate with the other political forces have forced Kosovars to vote again on the composition of Parliament for the second time this year.
Pristina"As president, it is my duty to set the longest possible timeframe, not the shortest, to mitigate the challenges posed by organizing elections," said Vjosa Osmani, president of Kosovo, in response to criticism for setting the country's parliamentary elections for December 28, in the middle of the Christmas holidays. Last February, Vetëvendosje (VV), Prime Minister Albin Kurti's party, won the parliamentary elections with 42.3% of the vote, but did not achieve the necessary majority to govern. He failed to garner enough support to form a government on his own. Since then, he has been unable to negotiate with the various factions and has kept Parliament paralyzed for more than seven months. In April, the VV party nominated Albulena Haxhiu as Speaker of the House and refused to change the nominee, even though he did not receive the support of the rest of Parliament. This effectively blocked the Assembly for months. Faced with the VV's "stubbornness," the Constitutional Court had to intervene to force the House to elect a Speaker within 30 days; by then it was already July. Finally, Dimal Basha, a member of the VV party, was elected as the new Speaker of Parliament. This was supposed to pave the way for the formation of a new government. But on October 26, Kurti again failed to form a new government. Osmani did not announce a new election until November 20, almost a month later. According to Kosovo's Constitution, after a second failed parliamentary election, the President of the Republic must dissolve the Assembly and call new elections, which must be held within a maximum of 40 days. The VV (Vietëvendosje) has managed to extend this deadline in order to choose a date that, it seems, could benefit them.
On December 28, most of the country's diaspora—between 700,000 and 800,000 Kosovars living abroad—returned to Kosovo to celebrate the New Year with their families. Kurti enjoys strong support within this group. It is worth noting that Osmani is also an ally of the VV. And although the Kosovar president has called this theory "offensive," it is the most common observation in the country.
Why has Kurti lost her majority in four years?
Albin Kurti is the favorite, but the results of the elections earlier this year, as well as those of the local elections held on October 12, demonstrate the loss of support for the VV leader in just four years. Certain achievements of Kurti during these years cannot be denied: the liberalization of visas with the Schengen Area and the recognition de facto on the part of Serbia stipulated in the Ohrid Agreements – although they were never fulfilled. But these have also been years marked by tensions: The policy of reciprocity in license plates for cars from the north caused one of the most serious crises in the border area of Mitrovica Since independence, Serbia has faced EU sanctions—lifted this month—and increased Serbian demands to implement the Association of Serbian Municipalities, stipulated in the 2013 Brussels Agreements. Added to this is the deterioration of democratic indicators: Reporters Without Borders' Press Freedom Index ranks 10th, and Freedom House reports maintain their concerns about the intimidation of journalists, institutional corruption, and weaknesses in the rule of law. But what stands out most is the loss of hope that young people had placed in the government in 2021, when the VV promised to focus on the country's "real problems": fighting corruption and political patronage; strengthening democracy and reforming the judicial system; reducing unemployment, increasing wages, improving public services such as healthcare and education; and implementing housing programs for young people. And although in many cases, such as the implementation of social reforms, the government's efforts have been highlighted, they have been insufficient.
Nevertheless, the VV enjoys the highest level of support, at 50-53%, according to an independent public opinion poll, while the Democratic Party of Kosovo (PDK) stands between 16% and 19%, and the Democratic League of Kosovo (LDK) between 15% and 15%. Meanwhile, the ten seats reserved for the Serbian community would go to the Serbian List.
Risk of paralysis
Given this, Kurti's victory may seem predictable, but it is also very likely that he will not have a sufficient majority and that Kosovo will once again be paralyzed and relive the ordeal it experienced in 2025. However, there is another scenario: the PDK and the LDK have declared that, for the first time, they would be willing to unite and try again.
More than two million Kosovars will go to the polls this Sunday, of whom 70,000 are part of the diaspora registered to vote, while the leader of Vetëvendosje hopes that another large number will take advantage of "their return home" for the holidays to elect him.
