The harshest winter for Ukrainians also freezes the Russian advance

MoscowWhile Vladimir Putin was lashing out at Ukrainian cities, leaving their neighbors without heating, electricity, or water in the dead of winter, the cold has also chilled the Russians to the bone. Russian soldiers, who had been making remarkable progress for months, have seen their advance halted by the extreme conditions, granting Kyiv's troops a reprieve. This has deprived the Kremlin of one of its favorite bargaining chips in any negotiation: military trophies. With the front line stalled, even if only temporarily, the Russian president risks Donald Trump not seeing Volodymyr Zelensky's defeat as imminent as he would like to believe.

The Russian army's progress during January was the smallest since March 2025. In total, according to the Ukrainian DeepState project, it has captured 152 square kilometers, far from the 423 in December or the 489 in November. Independent Russian analyst Ruslan Leviev, of the Conflict Intelligence Team, speaks of a "conditional pause" and predicts that Moscow's advances could reach a historic low by early February. "There will have been virtually no change for a month," he adds, citing the Russian campaign in the Zaporizhzhia region, which was progressing rapidly and has now practically ground to a halt.

"Every winter, combat operations slow down significantly," Leviev explains. Mud and snow hinder the movement of infantry and heavy vehicles. Soldiers no longer move in battalions and are forced to infiltrate in small groups. because of dronesThat's why they suffer more in the intense cold, hiding in appalling conditions for days or weeks awaiting reinforcements.

They are also more vulnerable to drones because the bare trees prevent them from blending in with the vegetation, making them easier to track by the footprints they leave in the snow. Furthermore, drones also lose battery life when extreme temperatures damage their batteries.

After last winter's relatively mild weather, this new scenario is leading some military experts to revise their predictions on the ground. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) considers it "unlikely" that Russian forces will be able to seize all of Donbas before August 2027. This assumes they maintain a monthly rate of advances like the one they saw in November and December. This situation contrasts sharply with Putin's rhetoric, in which he repeatedly states that if dialogue fails, Russia will achieve its objectives by force.

Putin's theater

Since the start of the invasion, before Trump's return to the White House, the Kremlin leader had only been seen in military attire five times. In the last year, he has donned camouflage clothing on nine occasions. Six of these occurred in the wake of the latest US negotiating push, between October and December 2025. And each of these appearances coincided with important events: leaks of details of the peace plan, Zelensky's visits to the White House, or trips by US envoys to Moscow. On all these occasions, Putin announced supposed victories for the Russian army, convinced that Trump reacts to sensationalist messages and displays of force.

Since the Russian army has not achieved any victories on the battlefield in recent weeks, the Chief of the General Staff, Valery Gerasimov, who often accompanies Putin in these theatrical displays, appeared alone to deny the paralysis of Russian forces on the front lines. He claimed that his soldiers occupied more than 500 square kilometers of Ukrainian territory and even proclaimed the capture of 17 settlements, including Kupiansk-Vuzlovi in ​​northeastern Ukraine. The problem is that no independent observer has even confirmed that Moscow's troops are anywhere near that town. At best, maps place them 10 kilometers away. Even pro-war Russian bloggers have criticized Gerasimov's statements, accusing him of repeatedly fabricating his men's successes for public consumption.

This is what happened, for example, with the city of Kupiansk, near the village of Kupiansk-Vuzlovi. The Russian general proclaimed its "liberation" on November 20, but Ukraine not only denied it but also launched a counter-offensive in the area, expelled the Russian soldiers, and Zelensky even made an appearance in the town. Putin, in turn, mocked the Ukrainian president and claimed that, like a good comedian, the whole charade was fake.

The reality is that, according to analysts, Kupiansk is currently under Ukrainian control, and the counterattack by Kyiv's troops in that sector is one of the reasons for the Kremlin's recent lack of overall progress. Even Putin's propaganda is turning against him: a video of the daughter of a soldier missing in action in that area is circulating on Russian Telegram channels. "If Kupiansk is ours, why isn't there any evacuation of bodies? Why haven't the soldiers contacted the families since October or November?" she complains indignantly.

Unable to present new trophies on the front lines as leverage, during the first peace talks in Abu Dhabi, Russia launched the most powerful bombing in the last month against Ukrainian energy infrastructure and left Kyiv on the brink of humanitarian catastrophe. The strategy worked, and Trump implored Putin to halt the attacks. The Kremlin claimed on Friday that it had agreed, after launching another massive missile and drone attack in the early hours of the morning. Now the Kremlin leader is confident that the cold weather will not dampen the United States' supposed willingness to recognize Russian sovereignty over Donbas.