The great nationalist parties revalidate the dominance in a politically divided Bosnia

SarajevoBosnians voted this Sunday in the dozens of general elections since the end of the war and opted for continuity. The results, still partial, maintain the dominance of the major nationalist parties of the country's three main communities: the Bosnian Party of Democratic Action (SDA), with a mostly pro-European orientation; the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), the main Bosnian Serb force and supporter of strengthening the ties of the Republika Srpska with Serbia and Russia, and the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina (HDZ BiH), the main force among Bosnian Croats and aligned with the Euro-Atlantic perspective.

Their rivalries, also crossed by different visions regarding the relations of Bosnia and Herzegovina with the European Union, Russia and Serbia, and by deep differences over the future of the state, keep much of the country's political life blocked. Facing them, a multi-ethnic bloc led by the social-democratic SDP was presented, together with numerous minor formations that will foreseeably keep the political map fragmented.

The 1995 Dayton Accords left a decentralized institutional structure and a very complex electoral system. This Sunday, more than 500 elected positions were at stake. Bosnians had to choose the three members of the country's tripartite presidency (integrated by a Bosnian, a Croat, and a Serb), the state Parliament, and the institutions of the two semi-autonomous entities that form the country: the Republika Srpska (with a Serbian majority) and the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (Muslims and Croats), in addition to the representatives of the ten cantons of the Federation.

Turnout stood at 38.54%, in elections that featured for the first time biometric identification systems and scanners for ballots, a measure presented by the Central Election Commission as a mechanism to reduce fraud and increase integration.

Preliminary results point to the continuity of the main forces that have dominated the country's politics, marked by deep ethnic and political differences that hinder the functioning of institutions and decision-making.

The result also leaves the future of Bosnia and Herzegovina's European candidacy in the hands of a new fragmented legislature. The European Commission has specifically pointed to political blockages and disputes between the different levels of government as the main obstacles to advancing these reforms.

The shadow of pro-Russian Milorad Dodik

One of the main battles of the night took place in Republika Srpska, the Serb-majority entity. Savo Minić, candidate of the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD), prevailed in the race against Branko Blanusa, candidate of the opposition Serbian Democratic Party (SDS). The SNSD continues under the leadership of pro-Russian Milorad Dodik, even though the former president of Republika Srpska was sentenced in 2025 to one year in prison and six years of disqualification for refusing to implement the decisions of the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Dodik did not run personally in these elections, but his figure dominated the party's campaign. The Bosnian Serb leader, who advocates for greater autonomy for Republika Srpska and strengthening his ties with Serbia and Russia, has made questioning the Bosnian state one of the axes of his discourse.

In the other entity that forms the country, the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, the Party of Democratic Action (SDA), Bosniak, leads the count for the House of Representatives, while the Croatian Democratic Union of Bosnia and Herzegovina maintains the lead among the Croatian forces.

To the tripartite presidency

The Bosnian system establishes that the highest presidential body of the state is formed by a Bosnian representative, a Serbian one, and a Croatian one. In these elections, the same parties that governed during the last legislature have won: the SDP as the Bosnian party, headed by Denis Bećirović; the SNSD as the Serbian party, with Zeljka Cvijanovic; and HDZ BiH as the Croatian party, led by Darijana Filipovic. All three will rotate this position for periods of eight months each.

Regarding the election of the state Parliament, the SDA stands as the leading force in the race for the House of Representatives, followed by the Social Democratic Party of Bosnia and Herzegovina (SDP). The HDZ stands as the main force of Croatian representation. And in Republika Srpska, Milorad Dodik's SNSD wins again.