The future of the British 'premier' and of the United Kingdom, in the hands of 76,600 nostalgics

LondonThe streets of Ashton‑in‑Makerfield and Hindley, the two main towns in the Makerfield constituency in northwest England, still echo a past that no longer exists. Their inhabitants would like to regain the security of a mine closed decades ago or the stability provided by the wages of a factory now reduced to ruins. Instead, they are faced with logistics centers, service companies, healthcare and elderly care providers, and zero-hour contracts that do not guarantee a single work shift.

That disappeared world was the pride of a working class that felt the country was moving forward with them, not against them. It is not surprising, then, that one of the most repeated phrases when asked about the state of the United Kingdom is that "the country is broken and not working," a diagnosis also used by the leaders of the Reform Party of the ultra Nigel Farage.

Among the just over 105,000 inhabitants of the district, the perception that London — synonymous with Westminster and the ruling class — has abandoned them is persistent. In this strip of working-class towns between Wigan (7 km away) and Manchester (26 km away), the industrial past is not just memory: it is a way of life turned into nostalgia and, often, into resentment. And it is from resentment, here, that the far right feeds.

This is the backdrop against which the most important by-election the United Kingdom has held since the end of the Second World War is taking place this Thursday. Because the little more than 76,600 electors in the constituency can decide whether in the coming weeks or months – probably sooner rather than later – there will be a change at the head of the government. Depending on the result, Keir Starmer could become the sixth exprime minister in just one decade, a record of instability for the United Kingdom. An instability that began with the Brexit referendum – it will be a decade next week – and whose roots go back to the 2008 economic crisis.

The two candidates

nearly a hundred deputies from his party for him to resignConversely, if Burnham wins, he has promised to fight for the leadership of the party. Consequently, he would replace a Starmer who is increasingly weakened by the "electoral disaster of early May" in the local elections, by the subsequent resignations, including those of the Health and Defence ministers, and the request of almost a hundred of his party's MPs for him to resign. almost a hundred of his party's MPs for him to resign.

Polls point to a victory for Burnham. But the margins are narrow and nothing is decided. The most recent, published last Sunday, places the difference between the candidates at only five points: 46% and 41%, respectively. The third party in contention is Restore Britain, a split to the right of the Reform Party, which has 7% of voting intention.

, and displaced the conservatives from second position. And Burnham has had to back down on its well-known positions in favor of the European UnionBurnham, on the other hand, has also repeated during the campaign that "the country and the party have gone down the wrong path for the last forty years", a vote of no confidence not only in the conservative policies of the period 2010 to 2024, but even in the era of Tony Blair and Gordon Brown (1997-2010).

Under normal circumstances, during the campaign, the exclusive focus would have been on the local issues that most concern the residents of Makerfield: the cost of living, the deterioration of the high streets, and the state of public services. But the challenge that Burnham has announced against Starmer has made it inevitable that the background noise will be issues of national scope: from immigration to relations with the European Union.

Makerfield is a bastion of leave. 64.9% of the population voted to leave the European Union and Farage's party secured 31% of the votes in the 2024 elections, displacing the Conservatives from second place. And Burnham has had to backtrack on his well-known pro-European Union positions and warn that he has no intention of reopening the Brexit debate.

340 kilometers northwest of London, Makerfield has become a mirror and a mirage of the United Kingdom. The country is gambling its future in an area that wishes to turn back the clock, but which is little more than "a graveyard on top of an exhausted mine," as Tony Harrison's poem V, by Tony Harrison, says. The author, who died last year, would probably be scandalized to see how the same working-class communities that he portrayed with so much humanity and fury could end up embracing the discourse of an far-right that promises to resurrect a past that does not exist.