The elections in New York: the Democrats' laboratory to try to climb out of the hole

WashingtonA year after Kamala Harris's electoral defeat, which left the Democratic Party adrift, an opportunity seems to be emerging to regain its voice and mount a real opposition. Some of the primaries being held this Tuesday at the state and local levels across the country have become a testing ground where the party is trying to find the formula for facing next year's midterm elections. They have also brought to the surface the party's divisions in combating the rise of Donald Trump. increasingly thirsty for power

The elections will also serve as a barometer for the first few months of the Republican's presidency, which will coincide with the vote. with the government shutdownThe country is experiencing a crisis due to Trump's inability to pass a budget. When the polls close tomorrow to count votes, the longest default in the country's history will also be complete if the Senate fails to unblock the budget.

Today's focus will be primarily on New York, where a new mayor will be elected. The existence of both souls has crystallized perfectly with the meteoric rise of Democrat Zohran Mamdani: Hope for the grassroots and the far left; and an earthquake that has shaken the party establishment. Mamdani's main rival has turned out not to be the Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, but another Democrat: Andrew Cuomo, the former governor of New York who already lost to Mamdani in the party primaries and who has run as an independent with the support of some party members and donors. Cuomo, who resigned as governor due to several accusations of sexual harassment, has had the support of some of the biggest Democratic patrons, who met in September to see how they could boost his campaign and stop Mamdani. The history of sexual harassment didn't worry them as much as the promises to freeze rents and raise taxes.

It is no coincidence, then, that Mamdani based his story on the adverb despiteDespite being Muslim, despite being openly socialist, and despite being a complete unknown, the polls show him as the winner. The 34-year-old candidate, with a social media campaign that has revolutionized political communication, has taken up the analysis that independent Senator Bernie Sanders made about Kamala Harris's defeat in 2024. "It shouldn't surprise us too much that a Democratic party that has abandoned the working class finds that the working class has abandoned it." Democrats obtained their worst percentage of votes among the working and lower classes in the last twenty years.

Sanders himself, along with Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, already put this theory into practice with his owntourA political movement against the oligarchy is underway in the country's key Republican districts. The victory of Mamdani, a socialist, as mayor of the world's financial capital would strengthen this proposal within the party. But it's no guarantee that it will become the campaign's strategy for the midterm elections.

Virginia and New Jersey, the other hotspots

The Democratic electorate nationwide is more diverse than that of New York City and also more conservative in other areas. Although Harris's moderate tone didn't resonate—nor was it a true test, since the vice president only had 100 days to revive a floundering campaign—the party will likely not make a major U-turn and will continue to closely monitor the results of the state races in Virginia and New Jersey.

Elections are also being held today to choose governors in these two states, which are another hotbed for Democrats, who will also analyze the results as a kind of referendum on Trump's approval rating. Democrats, who have endured a nine-month drought without controlling either house of Congress and without an effective federal counterweight to the president, hope that the outcome of these two elections will be a starting point for their counter-reaction to Trump.

On Monday morning, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries—who reluctantly endorsed Mamdani at the last minute—asserted that the Queens candidate "does not" represent the future of the Democratic Party. This is partly because the party's direction is far more likely to be based on the state campaigns of Abigail Spanberger (Virginia) and Mikie Sherrill (New Jersey) to garner votes in key battleground states in 2026. Mamdani's proposals, such as raising taxes on the wealthiest 1% in New York, are also a factor. Spanberger, 46, was a CIA agent and worked as a counternarcotics operative before entering politics. Sherrill, 53, is a former Navy helicopter pilot. Both are part of the same political generation, marked by the blue wave, which took control of Congress during the first Trump administration in the 2018 midterm elections. It was at that time that both first won their seats in Congress, where they demonstrated the same interest in national security.

Spanberger is leading in the polls in Virginia, a historically Republican state, but where anti-Trump sentiment and its proximity to the Washington border have led to a growing shift toward Democratic positions.

In New Jersey, Sherrill is in a virtual tie with her Republican rival, Jack Ciattarelli. If she loses, it would be a major blow to the Democrats. Although New Jersey has traditionally been Democratic, in recent years Republicans have gained influence thanks to Trump.

Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin said in a recent interview that Tuesday's victories would help energize the party and could serve as a starting point for 2026. The big question is whether the Democrats, after a year without a clear direction, will get lost in internal power struggles. Internal tensions and the party's inaction regarding Joe Biden's candidacy spoiled an already weakened campaign whose foundation was the fear of Trump's return.