The elections that could turn New York into a nightmare for Trump

WashingtonDemocrats, Donald Trump, and much of the country have their eyes glued to Tuesday's New York City mayoral election. The cause of this obsession is Zohran Mamdani. For the president, the Democratic candidate threatens to become a thorn in his side, and for the Democrats, it could represent a turning point after losing their way with the presidential debacle. Not to mention the upheaval a socialist mayor would cause in the financial capital of the world. With just days to go, one of the big questions is whether it's possible for the Democratic candidate to lose.

Early voting has already begun, and the latest polls place Mamdani ahead of his main political rivals by a double-digit margin. The Suffolk University poll puts the Democratic candidate ten points ahead of Andrew Cuomo (44% to 34%), the former Democratic governor who lost to him in the primaries and who is determined to continue in the race as an independent. The Republican candidate, Curtis Sliwa, trails far behind with only 11%.

The ten-point gap is the most Cuomo has managed to close after the other independent candidate, former New York City Mayor Eric Adams, dropped out of the race and endorsed him. Adams, who won the 2022 election as the Democratic nominee, was embroiled in a corruption scandal last year. The charges against Adams were dropped at Donald Trump's request.

A grassroots phenomenon

In just one year, Mamdani has gone from being a complete unknown to becoming the name on everyone's lips when New York elections are discussed. The now-Democratic candidate was a complete surprise in the party primaries, when he managed to unseat Cuomo as the mayoral nominee, despite the latter having the support of the entireestablishment Democrat. The 34-year-old has built his campaign on the idea that he managed to break ground where it seemed impossible, all thanks to the grassroots.

A city to live in

Combating rental prices and making the city a place where residents can truly live again—a city where the middle class has been increasingly squeezed by rising costs—are the cornerstones of an unapologetically left-wing electoral program. Inflation, which has now soared back to 3% and was Joe Biden's downfall a year ago—and later Kamala Harris's—could now be Mamdani's springboard.

The Democrat, who openly identifies as a socialist, seems to be taking up the analysis made by the former independent senator, Bernie Sanders, on Harris's defeat in 2024. "It shouldn't surprise us too much that a Democratic Party that has abandoned the working class finds that the working class has abandoned it," he wrote in his statement a few days after the Democrats received their worst percentage of votes among the working and lower classes in the last twenty years. Sanders emphasized that "while Democratic leaders defend the'status quoThe American people are angry and want change.” Mamdani could be an early symptom of that change desired by New Yorkers, but also by many voters across the country, especially with next year’s midterm elections approaching.

A year after writing this analysis, Sanders has become one. Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the other voice of the party’s progressive wing, joined Mamdani on stage at Forest Hills Stadium in Queens for his final campaign rally on October 26, after having headlined their own. tour Political campaign against the oligarchy in the country's main Republican districts.

"Those in power will throw everything at their disposal against us. They will spend millions of dollars. They will attack us from every possible angle. But we will not bend. We will triumph over the oligarchs and restore dignity to our lives," Mamdani said during the event with the slogan "New York is not available("New York is not for sale") The Democratic candidate once again adopted the formula that the Sanders-Ocasio-Cortez tandem has preached as a possible way to defeat Trump in the future: the narrative of the people against the people. The Democrat has terrified some of the party's biggest donors and real estate moguls with the promise to freeze rent prices and raise taxes on the wealthiest 1% of New Yorkers. New York Times It was revealed in early September how some of the city's wealthiest landlords and businesspeople met with Cuomo to "chart their path to the city council," with the main motivation being to unite to stop Mamdani.

Despite being the Democratic candidate, Mamdani's figure has been a source of conflict for a good part of theestablishment of the party. Some of its leaders, like New York Senator Chuck Schumer, have refused to support him. Others, like the House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries, have done so at the last minute and reluctantly. Beyond the more left-leaning positions, Mamdani has proven controversial among some sectors of the party due to his pro-Palestinian stance and opposition to the Gaza war.

While some fear that this will lead to his rejection by the city's Jewish community, there are also other underlying reasons, such as AIPAC, the major Zionist lobby in the US. At the time, Jeffries' campaign received a copious funding of the Aipac, which also ousted Congresswoman Cori Bush of Missouri in the last election, one of the most critical voices in Congress against Israel.

Trump's threats against Mamdani

One of the reasons Mamdani's name has gained notoriety is because Trump has relentlessly attacked him since winning the Democratic primaries. From deploying the National Guard to the city to cutting off federal funding, the tycoon has escalated his threats against the city in anticipation of a potential Democratic victory.

"I've always been very generous with New York, even when I've had opposition, but I wouldn't be generous with a communist, with a guy who's going to take all the money and throw it out the window," he said during lunch with Argentine President Javier Milei. He added, "We won't let just anyone get into office and waste that country's taxpayer money." This comes from the same president who unilaterally demolished the East Wing of the White House and cut millions of dollars from public health programs to bolster the ranks of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE).

Trump's fixation on Mamdani isn't just ideological or a subconscious recognition of the rivalry he may pose; it's also because it's the mayoral race in his hometown, where he has a significant portion of his real estate holdings. Trump seems just as worried as the other major New York billionaires who are closing ranks against Mamdani.

The candidates

Mamdani was born in Kampala, Uganda, and moved with his family to New York when he was seven. The son of Indian parents—his mother a well-known film director, his father a professor at Columbia University—Mandani has proudly embraced his Indian roots, as well as the fact that he was born in Uganda. He has also made no secret of being New York's first Muslim presidential candidate. At 33—he is now 34—he surprised many. the establishment Democrat after winning the mayoral primary. He had previously served in the City Assembly representing Queens.

A self-described democratic socialist, Mamdani has become a thorn in the side of the city's bigwigs and billionaires with his proposals focused on making the city accessible to its residents, especially the middle and working classes. Some of his campaign promises include implementing free buses, freezing rents, and establishing city-owned supermarkets. He has also openly condemned Israel's genocide in Gaza.

Before becoming the Republican candidate for mayor of New York City, Curtis Sliwa was already a well-known figure among New Yorkers. Sliwa has been in the city's spotlight for over forty years, having founded Guardian Angels in the 1970s, a neighborhood watch group that has been patrolling the subway and other areas of the city to combat crime ever since. A few years ago, Sliwa admitted to fabricating some of the early milestones of the neighborhood watch in order to increase his fame. He is also a host on the conservative radio station WABC. During the campaign, he has criticized the city's immigration policies and opposed the opening of new shelters.

The former Democratic governor of New York ran in the mayoral primaries for his party and, despite losing to Mamdani, decided to continue the race as an independent. Cuomo, who had to resign as governor in 2021 after a dozen women accused him of sexual harassment, has become the leading candidate for the city's wealthy landowners and billionaires to stop Mamdani. He was also the preferred candidate of some members of theestablishmentThe party's candidate faced the socialist nominee. During the Democratic primaries, he highlighted his record as governor, which included the completion of major infrastructure projects and an increase in the minimum wage.