Lula, a key player in resisting Trump's harassment and the new extremist wave

São PauloLuiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces the last year of his third term strengthened on the international stage, thanks to a firm stance in confronting the interference of Donald Trump, with a stable local economy, but with the uncertainty of the presidential elections in October, which, once again, will be held in a scenario in.

At 80 years old, the veteran leader and multilateralism activist has become a global figure for the way he has calmed Trump's fury, defending full sovereignty and equal negotiations. Lula has perfected the diplomatic approach initiated by his Mexican counterpart, Claudia Sheinbaum, with whom he shares many ideological affinities, to defuse the tariff: a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports to the United States implemented by the Republican administration since August of last year.

With this tariff blackmail, Trump demanded an end to the "witch hunt" surrounding the trial of his ally, former president Jair Bolsonaro, now imprisoned and serving a 27-year sentence for attempted coup. The White House considered the Brazilian government's actions to constitute "an unusual and extraordinary threat to the national security, foreign policy, and economy of the United States."

At the height of the pressure, numerous internal voices, primarily from business organizations and amplified by large local media groups, demanded that Lula bow to Trump's demands. With his popularity waning and cornered in Congress by the Centrão—the swing parties that foster clientelistic relationships—the veteran leader correctly diagnosed the situation amidst a crisis that threatened the viability of his government. He skillfully transformed Trump's interference into an opportunity to co-opt the patriotic narrative from the far right.

Balancing acts with the White House

At the same time, he opened channels of dialogue with Washington. Lula, who has made compromise a negotiating virtue throughout his public career as a union leader and politician, had the behind-the-scenes strategic support of one of Brazil's largest conglomerates: the meat giant JBS. One of the founders of this family business, which became the world's leading producer of animal protein, Joesley Batista, was received by Trump, to whom he had given five million dollars for the White House inauguration ceremony. There, he intervened on behalf of the Brazilian government and helped to persuade the Republican leader to reconsider. A relevant detail: JBS has more employees in the United States than some of Trump's most cherished brands, such as the automaker Ford.

There was a planned, informal meeting between Trump and Lula at UN headquarters in September, during the General Assembly. "I liked him. There was excellent chemistry," the Republican noted. At the end of November, Washington partially revoked the tariffEarlier, there was a presidential meeting at the ASEAN summit in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and public praise between the two leaders. In early March, another meeting will take place in Washington to further bilateral cooperation, with an agenda that extends beyond trade to include the future of Venezuela, Cuba, and the fight against drug trafficking.

Lula has had the undeniable merit of finding a balance with Trump that hasn't been broken even by Brazil's harsh criticism of Nicolás Maduro's capture, with whom, incidentally, the Brazilian president did not have a good personal relationship, unlike his relationship with Hugo Chávez. Brasília believes that Trump's new National Security Strategy, dubbed in the media as the Donroe doctrine, from the combination of "Monroe" and "Donald", threatens to destabilize Latin America, a region where the United States is increasingly accumulating support from conservative local governments.

Ideologically isolated in the region

Lula is currently the main democratic bastion in South America, not only because of his leadership role, but also because of the electoral victories of the far right, whose latest—such as José Antonio Kast's in Chile—have followed the trend seen in Argentina with Javier Milei and in Bolivia with the conservative Rodrigo Paz Pereira. Brazil finds itself ideologically isolated, with the risk that Colombia will also shift to the right.

The regional context does not help the Brazilian leader, who, this time, will have to face Jair Bolsonaro's eldest son, Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, handpicked by his father from prison, which has caused unease among the leading figures of the right who were betting on a "less radical" candidacy.

Indeed, the division within the conservative camp, with its various factions at odds (evangelicals, swing parties of the Centrão, governors with presidential aspirations), could help Lula's reelection. The president, unquestionable for the left despite his advanced age, is capitalizing on his opponents' temporary disagreements and working tirelessly to forge regional alliances. The goal is to tip the scales in an election that all indications suggest will be decided by a very narrow margin, despite the lack of charisma and political stature of the Bolsonaro clan's heir.