Conflicting messages from Washington and Tehran muddy the waters of the ceasefire
Vice President JD Vance will travel to Islamabad tomorrow, just as the truce expires, and the Iranians have not yet confirmed the second meeting
WashingtonWith every passing hour, the ceasefire becomes narrower and more elusive. Vice President JD Vance is scheduled to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday to try again to reach some kind of agreement with Iran. The problem, however, is that this time it is not confirmed that the Iranians will be seated at the other end of the table. President Donald Trump has been making numerous contradictory statements about the future of the talks, including saying that Vance was already on his way to Pakistan when he was not. Tehran has also been sending mixed signals after the marines intercepted an Iranian ship in Hormuz. On the one hand, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, has said that there are "no plans" for a new meeting, but the Iranian President, Masoud Pezeshkian, has acknowledged that continuing the war "does not benefit" anyone.
Initially, Trump had stated this Monday in the New York Post that Vance, along with the rest of the US delegation, was already flying to Islamabad. The fact itself constituted a minimum indication that there was indeed a possibility that the Iranians would sit down at the table to resume talks before the truce expires on Tuesday night. But now, with the prospect of the vice president flying on the same day that the pause is supposed to end, it adds even more uncertainty to the situation.
Tehran keeps talks up in the air
In parallel, the Iranians continue to balance their options to keep all possibilities on the table without committing to anything. While officially there is still no confirmation, anonymous administration sources are drip-feeding messages conducive to a new meeting. An Iranian official explained to Reuters this Monday that Iran is already considering the possibility of a second round, but the decision has not yet been made. Despite the interception of the Iranian ship Touska making the resumption of hostilities more real again, the reason the ayatollahs remain entrenched is the Strait of Hormuz: they demand that Washington lift the blockade it imposed at the beginning of last week.
Iranian authorities accuse Washington of "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant changes of stance, repeated contradictions" and consider the American naval blockade a violation of the ceasefire. Pezeshkian recalled this Monday that Iran's "deep historical distrust of the US's conduct" remains and warns that "contradictory and unconstructive signals from US officials" only undermine diplomatic efforts. "They seek Iran's surrender. The Iranians will not submit to force."
Thus, the fate of the war now hinges on Hormuz. Faced with the Iranians' entrenchment, the US seems to be starting to soften. Through Pakistan, the mediating country, Washington has said it would be willing to lift the blockade if it serves to guarantee that both sides return to the negotiating table.
Last Friday, despite the Iranians announcing that they were reopening the maritime passage, Trump decided to continue maintaining his blockade. Seeing that Washington did not yield, the Revolutionary Guard said that the strait "returned to the previous situation" and attacked several Western vessels. Trump considered it a violation of the ceasefire, but on Sunday announced that the US would participate in the talks in Islamabad with a delegation initially led by Vance, along with envoy Steve Witkoff and his son-in-law Jared Kushner.
On Sunday, Trump also threatened, once again, to destroy all of Iran's power plants and all of its bridges. "We are offering a very fair and reasonable deal, and I hope they accept it because, if they don't, the United States will destroy every single power plant, as well as all of Iran's bridges. Enough of playing smart! They will fall quickly and easily, and if they don't accept the deal, it will be my honor to do what must be done, something that other presidents should have done in Iran over the last 47 years. The time has come to put an end to Iran's killing machine," he said in a post. Later, he declared to Fox News that "if they don't sign the deal, the whole country will blow up." The same threats of committing war crimes, which are escalating as he sinks deeper into the quagmire of a war conceived to be won in a lightning strike and which has already dragged on for seven weeks.
