The ceasefire from the Israeli perspective
In one of his last phone communications, on Sunday night, Benjamin Netanyahu asked Donald Trump to move forward and not stop the war, according to the Hebrew press. The continuation of the war until the regime falls is the prime minister's position, and that is why some opposition leaders criticize Netanyahu.
According to these critics, Netanyahu has not managed to defend the country's interests. Although it depends on how the movie continues, the agreement with Iran is not positive for Netanyahu's interests, and it might not be for Israel's interests either. Netanyahu must call elections before October, and if the Islamic regime does not fall, his electoral prospects will be significantly reduced.
One of the pending issues to be clarified is what will happen on the Lebanese front, where the Shiite militias of Hezbollah are playing a central role and beyond Israeli expectations. According to Netanyahu, the ceasefire with Iran has no implication in Lebanon, where the war will continue, even though Pakistani authorities have said that the ceasefire is also valid for Lebanon.
It is hard to believe that Tehran will abandon Hezbollah to its fate, because the Lebanese militias constitute an extension of the Iranian armed forces in every respect. The loyalty of Lebanese Shiites to Tehran is absolute, as has been seen in this conflict, and it does not seem reasonable to think that the Iranians will abandon Hezbollah now.
If the two-week ceasefire agreed by Trump with Iran is also valid for Lebanon, Netanyahu will have to pay a high price on the domestic scene, and even on the regional scene. That is why his office denied on Wednesday that the agreement affects Lebanon. We will have to wait and see how the situation evolves on this front.
Netanyahu's political wear and tear
In the domestic scene, it would be bad business for Netanyahu because around a million Israelis from the north of the country are entering and leaving shelters several times a day. This represents a considerable political drain, especially for the prime minister. The Israeli authorities do not stop repeating that this time they will finish off Hezbollah for good, but the reality of the militiamen's attacks is daily and persistent.
In the regional scene, Netanyahu's prestige will fall significantly if Hezbollah continues to exist, particularly in the Arabian Peninsula, in countries like the Emirates or Saudi Arabia. The leaders of these countries place their hope in Netanyahu to maintain regional order, but if Israel is not capable of finishing off Hezbollah, his prestige will fall.
In any case, in the negotiations that the United States and Iran will begin on Friday in Islamabad, Israel will be very present. The objectives of the three parties are very different. For Iran, the objective is the maintenance of the regime. For Israel, the objective is the fall of the regime. So everything will depend on Trump's interests.
Trump's interests are wavering. On the one hand, American public opinion wants the price of oil to return to pre-war levels, and the same with the cost of living. In principle, Trump can choose this path, and this would consolidate the end of the war. But Trump can also follow Netanyahu's interests, as he has done so far, and then the war will continue after the ceasefire.