Presidential elections in Portugal: the great megaphone of the Portuguese Abascal

BarcelonaAll the polls predict a victory for the Socialist candidate in Sunday's presidential elections in Portugal, but in practice, André Ventura, leader of the Portuguese far right, is poised to turn defeat into his greatest opportunity. momentumIn a way, the president of Chega and leader of the opposition has already won. First, because on January 19th he made history and achieved to force a second round of voting in a presidential election For the first time since 1986. And secondly, because it has brought to the forefront a dichotomy already supported by one in four Portuguese voters – a figure that could rise to a third after Sunday. The debate, also fueled by the media, has centered on whether it is necessary to continue with the democratic system born fifty years ago with the Carnation Revolution or to promote a "fourth republic." It is "the biggest change in the Portuguese political system since April 25th" of 1974, in Ventura's own words.

This Sunday's presidential elections in Portugal are being held in a climate of a state of emergency due to the storms that have battered the Iberian Peninsula for the past two weeks. First came the DANA storm. Kristinwith hurricane-force winds that left millions of homes in the center of the country without power; then the rivers swelled with the Leonardowhich has overwhelmed both the Tagus and the Duero rivers, and the storm is expected to continue on Sunday Marten Accompany voters to the polls. A meteorological and political storm could alter the results predicted by the polls at the last minute due to increased abstention.

According to the latest polls, candidate António José Seguro, former Socialist minister and close associate of former Prime Minister António Guterres – current UN Secretary-General – would obtain 67% of the votes. Ventura, in turn, would garner a third of the electorate. A remarkable figure considering that his ceiling is 23%, the same percentage he obtained in the legislative elections of May last year. Chega became the second strongest force Portuguese parliamentarian.

"Ventura reaches the second round of the presidential elections with exactly the same electoral result he obtained seven months ago," António Costa Pinto, a sociologist and historian specializing in fascism and Salazarism, explains to ARA. "Now the big question, which Ventura will sell as a victory and a negotiating weapon with the current government, is the polls." This will mean, depending on voter turnout, that the Chega leader could gain more votes by deciding to run in the presidential elections after doing so in the last legislative elections. An anomaly, according to Costa Pinto, that clearly demonstrates the "extreme personalization" of the party around the figure of its leader.

Call for postponement

The final stretch of the campaign has been marked by storms, after Ventura requested a one-week postponement—seeing that the wind was blowing against him due to growing discontent with the government's handling of the crisis—and the conservative Prime Minister, Luis Montenegro, responded that it is not provided for in the law. In fact, local councils have the power to do so in some areas, as has happened in three of the towns most affected by the floods two weeks ago, which will finally vote next Sunday. The fact is that this winter's severe weather has highlighted the lack of investment in infrastructure, especially in electrical wiring, which left almost half a million people without power. This discontent underscores the problems of overcrowding in the healthcare system, inflation coupled with low wages, and difficulties accessing housing in large cities.

The populist differential

Sunday's results will reveal the electoral ceiling of what was dubbed the Chega earthquake in 2025. For the first time in fifty years of democracy, the traditional parties, the Socialist and the Social Democratic (PSD, which currently governs), failed to secure a two-thirds constitutional majority. Since then, Ventura's party has become a key player in Montenegrin government negotiations and has particularly influenced immigration policy. Accustomed to being a country that expels young peopleThe wave of migration in recent years has increased rates of xenophobia and persecution of racialized people, and the government has responded by passing one of the most restrictive immigration laws in the European Union—currently stalled in the Constitutional Court. This ended the Iberian divide formed by two socialist governments with progressive policies, with a phenomenon that emerged later than Vox in Spain but with more support. However, Portuguese analysts agree in highlighting the differences between Ventura and Abascal. Although both come from center-right parties, such as the PP and PSD, for Costa Pinto, the leader of Chega has a "much more populist" profile. The journalist Miguel Carvalho, author of the book Fear inside Chega (2025), the result of years of research, goes even further: "Comparing Chega to Vox, for example, from an ideological point of view, is like comparing apples and oranges. Within Chega, there is no ideological debate because its leader is the one who decides everything." According to Carvalho, it is a political formation that poses a "danger to democracy" in Portugal because it calls into question the "separation of powers and the rule of law."

Ventura is considering running for President of the Republic while simultaneously remaining President of Chega. A possibility that is not illegal, but one that has never been seen before. His campaign has been one of "constant victimization," in the words of Costa Pinto, who is pleased that it has at least served to prompt most right-wing candidates to call for a "democratic" option like Seguro's. The next Portuguese president will replace the charismatic Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa after ten years and will have to act as an "arbiter" of parliamentary decisions, as the outgoing head of state has done with the controversial immigration laws.