No regime change nor dismantling of the nuclear program: Trump's failed agreement
The US president has renounced most of the objectives he had set when he declared war against Iran
Washington"Ships of the world, start your engines. Let the oil flow!", wrote the US president this Sunday on his network, Truth Social. On his 80th birthday, Donald Trump celebrated that the agreement with Iran had been "completed", congratulated all those involved and boasted of having gone much further than any other US leader.
"The great deal will bring peace and security to the entire region. Many presidents have tried to make peace with Iran, and all have failed until they reached me. The leaders of the region have found, for the first time, a president who can help them achieve real peace. With the opening of the Strait of Hormuz after the signing of the agreement this Friday, to achieve the elimination of mines, oil will flow again on both sides of the region and the world!", wrote Trump.
The next day, experts do not see Trump's victory so clearly. The full text of the agreement has not yet been released, but it is known that the US president started the war against Iran with the aim of dismantling its nuclear program forever, and this part of the negotiation has been postponed. He promised to help the country's protesters overthrow the regime, but this regime remains in place. And he proclaimed that he would ensure that the US stopped sending "terrorists" to other countries. "We will destroy their navy and ensure that the Iranian regime cannot continue arming, financing, and directing terrorists outside its borders," Trump said in March, another objective that now seems set aside.
"Trump is wrong. He is the first president who has led the US into war with Iran and, therefore, the first who has needed a truce to avoid it. The peace that his predecessors sought and did not achieve has not yet arrived," opines Bloomberg columnist Marc Champion, former director of the
Wall Street Journal. "This is not a peace agreement that will reshape US-Iran relations or bring stability to the region. The fact that all the problems that preceded it have been left pending for the future is a sign of the war's failure," he argued.
Trump has said that he will speak about these demining operations at the G7 summit, which is being held this week in FranceWhat analysts, experts, Democratic congressmen, and also some Republicans were asking themselves this Monday is what is the point of starting a war if its result has been to return to square one, that is, the reopening of a commercial shipping route that was open before the start of the conflict. For many, the feeling now is that Trump has been forced to take a step back, defeated by an Iran that has shown great resilience in the face of attacks from the world's largest army, an Iran capable of strangling the global economy.
"Since the United States launched this war, its objectives have changed. It has not managed to provoke a regime change and, instead, has strengthened the position of the most intransigent sectors. And although the agreement seems to include the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, closing the strait continues to be a powerful weapon with which Iran will threaten in the future," opines Victoria J. Taylor, director of the Atlantic Council, who served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for Iraq and Iran during the Biden and Trump administrations.
"There is a possibility that this ceasefire may pave the way for a more permanent agreement, but it is more likely to be a temporary and fragile understanding that in the best case will avoid a new war until the end of this administration," predicts Taylor.
Many also wondered if the terms of the agreement are really what the United States is communicating. Doubts also come from their own side. Republican Senator and staunch Trump supporter Lindsey Graham has expressed his doubts about this. "I am concerned because Iran's view of the agreement seems different from what the American negotiating team is proclaiming," he wrote on X.
The unknown of the Strait of Hormuz
The same Trump has shown that he has backtracked on some of his objectives. "I never cared about regime change," he said in an interview this Sunday, contradicting his statements during the start of the war and stating that the current regime is the "most rational" of all the regimes with whom the US has negotiated.
On the other hand, it is also not clear that the agreement will allow a quick reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, as the American president promises. Although Trump said on Sunday that ships were already circulating, government sources warned that the US blockade of Iranian ports would remain in force until the agreement signing ceremony. At the same time, shipping companies warn that they will not allow their ships to cross the waterway until both parties guarantee that it is safe and that there are no mines.
"The shipping industry has to have confidence to go out," opines Rockford Weitz, professor of maritime studies at Tufts University, in conversation with Al-Jazeera. In his opinion, returning to normal is a task that could take months, "because the disruption has been much more prolonged than anyone expected".
The International Chamber of Shipping has declared that about 500 ships are waiting for instructions to cross the strait, with about 20,000 crew members stranded inside. Trump has said he will talk about these demining operations at the G-7 summit, which is being held this week in France. In total, 46 attacks on international ships in the strait have been recorded during the war, according to data from the International Maritime Organization.
