Netanyahu makes the “new Middle East” he longed for a reality
BarcelonaShortly after assuming the office of Prime Minister of Israel in 1996, Benjamin Netanyahu commissioned a report from a group of neoconservative experts on the future of the Middle East. The result was a kind of roadmap called Clean Break, which proposed a new regional order based on an Israeli-American hegemony sustained by the use of force. The rise to power of Donald Trump and the Hamas attacks of October 7, 2003, offered Netanyahu a golden opportunity to realize his dream of an Israel with uncontested dominance, what he now calls "the new Middle East." The war that began this Saturday is merely its culmination.
The first stage in creating this new order involved getting rid of Saddam Hussein's Iraq, the most powerful and troublesome Arab state. And that is what George Bush did in 2003, advised by Netanyahu's own neoconservative allies. However, Bush's operation did not go entirely well, as the space left by Iraq, weakened by internal struggles between Sunnis and Shiites, was filled by Iran. During that period, the first decade of the 21st century, Tehran was forging a series of alliances with militias in several countries of the region, which, together with the support of Assad's Syria, constituted the so-called axis of resistance.
Therefore, a strengthened Islamic Republic became the last obstacle for Israel to become the sole great power in the Middle East. As had already happened in Iraq, The Iranian nuclear program became the argumentOr perhaps it was an excuse to convince Washington of the need to militarily destroy Iran. In fact, Netanyahu opposed the 2015 agreement to limit the Iranian nuclear program, sponsored by the Obama administration and the ayatollahs' regime. The Israeli leader's objective was not to prevent Tehran from building a nuclear bomb, a milestone already achieved through the bombings. Moreover, according to Oman, which mediated the talks in recent weeks, Tehran had already agreed not to store enriched uranium on its territory, making it impossible to acquire an atomic bomb in the future.
The current war serves to consolidate this new Middle East that Netanyahu aspired to and which, in fact, has been gradually taking shape since the attacks of October 7. In this new regional order, the Israeli government has the power to bomb any country in the region that does not submit to its dictates, rendering international law meaningless.
Thus, for example, in the days following the fall of Bashar al-Assad, Tel Aviv occupied the Syrian region of the Golan Heights which he still did not control, although Damascus no longer posed any threat to Israel's security. Furthermore, in the following months, Netanyahu ordered more than 700 airstrikes across the country, including one on the Defense Ministry headquarters amidst the conflict between the Druze minority and the central government, now led by former militant Ahmed al-Sharaa. Netanyahu's strategy also relies on inciting sectarian conflicts in neighboring states to weaken them.
Perhaps an even more striking example of how Netanyahu's new Middle East operates is Lebanon. The fall 2024 war between the pro-Iranian militia Hezbollah and Israel ended with a ceasefire that forced the Israeli army to withdraw from its positions in the south of the country, which then came under the control of the Lebanese army. However, with Washington's approval, Israel still occupies part of Lebanese territory and even bombs alleged Hezbollah positions almost daily, rendering the peace agreement a dead letter.
What will the pro-Western countries of the region do?
Thus, the big question left by the current scenario is whether the countries that have been part of the pro-Western camp for years will accept their submission to an all-powerful Israel. Qatar already tasted the bitter flavor of this recipe last September, when the Israeli army bombed the Qatari capital. in an unsuccessful attempt to assassinate the Hamas leadershipDoha reacted angrily, but had to settle for an apology from Netanyahu, forced by Trump. The attack on Doha served as a warning to the entire region, including Saudi Arabia, which aspires to lead the Arab world thanks to its economic prosperity and a military that has been strengthened in recent years. While Riyadh has always been a staunch ally of Washington, it is not clear that it will readily accept a hegemonic Israel that believes it has the right to use force unilaterally throughout the region, from Syria to Doha. The other regional power that views the new regional order with great concern is Turkey, a country that, under Erdogan, has been projecting its power abroad and already has military bases in several countries, including Libya, Syria, and Iraq. Ankara aspires to build a sphere of influence With borders similar to those of the former Ottoman Empire, this ambition clashes head-on with Netanyahu's new Middle East. Therefore, it would not be surprising if the region's future conflict were between Ankara and Tel Aviv.