Netanyahu, in continuous survival mode
An agreement does not guarantee that the Gaza war will end. Of course, an agreement can be signed at any time, but this will not necessarily mean an immediate solution to the conflict, not even to the most basic problems of the ongoing war, if the systematic killing of thousands of civilians in the Gaza Strip can even be called a war.
Netanyahu has managed to survive two years of internal and external criticism. He once said that the protesting Israelis are not his voters, and it is true. It is also true that he has the support of a clear majority of Jews, a cushion that ensures his position vis-à-vis the government and the war.
Using the war as an excuse, he has ensured that a state commission to investigate the origin and omissions that led to the disaster of October 7, 2023. In principle, such a commission should operate under the auspices of the Supreme Court. Netanyahu, however, wants a government commission that he can control, an initiative rejected by the opposition and which, for now, has not even been established.
This October, Netanyahu will turn 76. He is the longest-serving prime minister, ahead of David Ben-Gurion. But if anyone expected that the massacre of 1,200 Israelis two years ago would end his political career, they were sorely mistaken. He has remained at the head of the government and seems prepared to continue indefinitely whatever happens.
As for the corruption trialNetanyahu is procrastinating, delaying the proceedings, so, according to experts, the trial could continue for several more years. This would allow him to run in the next elections, and if so, the blog he leads would have a good chance of winning again at the polls.
An easy deal to break
The end of the war doesn't interest him, so even if he signs a document, it will be a role he can play as he pleases. He can always claim that the other side is breaching its commitments by returning to war.
Netanyahu wants to take advantage of the situation to change the Middle East from top to bottom. He has said so himself. His ambition is to go down in the history books as the person who left a very different region than the one he received; for his heirs and Israel to receive a Middle East without enemies. He is trying to achieve that dream.
Since he has a sufficient majority in the Knesset to govern, he is not considering holding elections. The opposition is divided despite its many leaders' claims to the contrary. The image of strength that Netanyahu conveys is not provided by any opposition leader, and this is important to sustain popularity.
He believes that, just as he was able to survive two years of war, he can continue leading the government indefinitely, delaying the sentencing of his trial and maneuvering with his partners in the ultra-nationalist and ultra-religious far right, as he has done so far. The last two years have been more complicated than any other period in the country's history, and if he has managed to stay in power so far, he will be able to continue on the basis of a fragile agreement with Hamas, which, for his part, he can break at any time that suits him best.