Khamenei's massive funerals test the Islamic Republic

BeirutBefore the sun beat down strongly on Tehran, thousands of people already occupied the surroundings of the Mosalla mosque. They wore black, held up portraits of the supreme leader and Iranian flags, and advanced in a slow choreography that turned the space into a state-sponsored stage. The authorities have prepared one of the largest funeral arrangements in the country's recent history, with official estimates speaking of between 15 and 30 million participants over the six days of ceremonies. In addition to Tehran, celebrations will extend to several key cities in the country and the Shiite space, and he will finally be buried at the shrine of Imam Reza, in Mashhad, the man who for 36 years concentrated the highest authority of the Islamic Republic, until he was killed on the first day of the joint attack by Israel and the United States, on February 28.

Large crowds have gathered at the funeral of the former Iranian supreme leader after the gates of the immense complex of the Grand Mosalla Mosque in central Tehran opened to thousands of people who had waited all night to enter the grounds. Emotion hung in the air as the crowd chanted slogans of "Death to the United States" and "Death to Israel".

The coffin of Ali Khamenei, of 86 years old, occupies the visible center of the ritual. But the scene unfolding around him pointed to something else. It is not just a farewell. It is a test of functioning. For the first time since 1989, the Iranian political system faces a moment without the leader who articulated its power architecture for more than three decades. And what is at stake is not the leader's memory, but the regime's ability to sustain itself without him.

Trial by fire for the regime

The first test is that of institutional continuity. For years, the strategic decisions of the Iranian state converged around Khamenei. Today, institutions must demonstrate that power does not depend on a single man. The Revolutionary Guard, the clergy, the government, and the security apparatus have activated a multi-day operation that combines logistics, territorial control, and management of public space. In any country, a funeral of these dimensions poses a logistical challenge; in the Islamic Republic, it is also a test of functionality without its historical center of gravity.

The second test, that of succession. Mojtaba Khamenei, designated supreme leader after his father's death, concentrates the future of the system and, at the same time, its greatest invisibility. His absence from public events is partly due to security reasons, following explicit threats from Israel. But a more opaque element is added: since the attack that killed his father, he has not been seen in public nor has he appeared on state television, and his health status has not been officially clarified, feeding an information vacuum carefully managed by the state apparatus.

While the country bids farewell to the father, the son cannot mourn. But his function is another: it is not symbolic, but operational, more geared towards sustaining the transition, overseeing indirect talks with the United States, and preventing the change of leadership from resulting in a power vacuum.

The Iranian leadership, for the first time in decades, is not being displayed, but managed with discretion. The paradox is evident: the system attempts to demonstrate continuity while its main figure of continuity remains out of sight. From this logic of outward projected continuity, ceremonies extend to Qom, in the center of the country; Najaf and Karbala, in Iraq, two of Shiism's main holy sites; and finally Mashhad, the main Shiite religious center in northeastern Iran.

Political cartography

It is not just a ceremonial itinerary, but a political cartography. Each stop reaffirms Iran's position as the axis of a transnational Shiite space that has been one of the pillars of its foreign policy for decades. On this journey, the funeral also functions as an act of symbolic reaffirmation at a time when Iranian regional influence is under pressure after the war and the recomposition of balances in the Middle East.

The state has turned the obsequies into a national event. Reorganized transport, closed offices, reinforced security deployment, and intense institutional activation of public space create a scenario in which participation is not only spontaneous but also induced. In the Islamic Republic, occupying the street is a form of power. Attendance figures – difficult to verify – matter as much as the system's ability to produce them.

In parallel, the country is going through one of the deepest economic crises of recent decades, with high inflation, loss of purchasing power, and a sustained deterioration of living conditions. This contrast between the state's effort dedicated to the funeral and the population's daily difficulties is part of the silent context of these ceremonies. The ritual unfolds in a country where social stability is no longer guaranteed.

Since its founding, the Islamic Republic has interpreted politics through a religious language that turns loss into martyrdom and confrontation into historical destiny. Khamenei's funeral is inscribed in this tradition, not as the death of a leader, but as the transformation of that death into a narrative of continuity and sacrifice. But this narrative coexists with another social memory, more fragmented, marked by years of protests, repression, and accumulated wear and tear between society and power.

For more than three decades, the Islamic Republic and Ali Khamenei were almost inseparable. When the mourning ends, the black flags disappear, and the country faces negotiations with the US, sanctions, and its internal tensions again, the decisive test will begin. More than a closing of a cycle, what is opening is the question of its continuity.