It is a very difficult year for Europe
StrasbourgIf this political analysis of the health of the European Union were music, it would have to sound increscendo (intensity) with a few touches of ostinato (tension) and quite a few moments of tremolo (suspense).
Installed in a moment of existential reformulation for almost five years, Europe begins the term in Strasbourg in a context of urgency and after a quite, quite, quite dire summer. Let's do a quick review of the latest events with political impact in Brussels: the intensification of hybrid warfare against the Twenty-Seven; Berlin's economic anemia; the migration crisis in Ceuta; the growing lack of protection for Ukraine; the fateful no in the Iceland referendum; the historic triumph of the German far-right in Saxony; the community offside in the race for artificial intelligence (AI)… To this must be added the great structural evil: the strategic irrelevance and bewilderment of Europe in the face of a world that has turned aggressive and unpredictable to the accelerando rhythm of Donald Trump.
The corridors of the European Parliament in Strasbourg, where this Wednesday Ursula von der Leyen will deliver the State of the EU address, exude pessimism –more than usual– for what may come. The diagnosis sounds like a mantra, but it is very real: European politics is starting an especially difficult political year. And, surprise, the cards to play it with are rather bad.
“We are preparing for a very hot autumn with Russia,” said socialist Javi López, Vice President of the European Parliament, on Tuesday. Similar proclamations resonate throughout the European institutions after, a few days ago, Mark Rutte and Von der Leyen herself warned of a new, more aggressive phase of hybrid warfare against Europe. Foreign interference has been shaking European capitals for years, but it had never done so with the clarity of now. The change of mindset in slow-moving Germany, which has pointed to the Kremlin for the first time, suggests that Vladimir Putin has decided to test the pulse of a NATO that depends on Trump.
"[In Europe] We are not at war, but we are no longer at peace either," said Chancellor Friedrich Merz recently. If Merz's phrase, unthinkable in Berlin not so long ago, were a song, it would be Wake up, by the Canadians Arcade Fire. Wake up, by the way, is what another Canadian, Prime Minister Mark Carney, came to say in his highly celebrated speech at Davos, in which he took for granted the rupture, the end, of the old international order: "Nostalgia is not a strategy." Precisely, Carney is the guest of honor this week in Strasbourg, and he is expected to deliver a similar alarm message.
Regarding the hybrid war against Europe, some observations must be recalled. First: it does not come only from Moscow; other external agents have interests in destabilizing the European project. Second: the poorly calculated dependencies of the EU are gasoline for the attacks. Third: the recurring division shown is the worst response that the community partners can present. Fourth: the course of the war in Ukraine is closely related to the course of the European hybrid war, and vice versa. Fifth: hybrid attacks have multiple forms ranging from hostile drone incursions or disinformation to migratory pressure or electoral interference. The EU has already begun a campaign to raise awareness among citizens about all these observations.
Let us pause now for the election year that is coming for Europeans. More music of tension.
Four large countries of the European Union are holding elections next year: France, Italy, Spain, and Poland. In the four capitals, the far-right arrives with options to govern, or to continue doing so in the case of Meloni in Rome. Without diminishing the importance of the other three, Paris is the city that, by far, causes the most concern: with Le Pen at 35% in the polls and a departing Macron, an arrival of the far-right at the Élysée would be an almost insurmountable shock for the European project. Berlin, the other engine of the EU, would enter panic mode.
The recent results of the AfD in Saxony, in fact, have already been a turning point for the community. Returning from the holidays, some parliamentarians have found themselves faced with a scene that has disconcerted them: the representatives of the German CDU, the largest party in Europe and the group with the most self-confidence in the hemicycle, show doubts and fear due to the ultra-right wave. The surprise is incomprehensible: the radical rise has been palpable on the European map for years, where the extreme right is touching government in seven countries. In the European Parliament, the cordon sanitaire has directly burst. Crises like the one in Ceuta, another foreign interference that neither Madrid nor Brussels wants to uncover yet, show that immigration, turned into a taboo by all European chancelleries, is the great springboard for the most populist and resentful right.
A year ago, in the previous State of the Union address, Von der Leyen, dressed in military green, launched a monumental question to the chamber: “Europe is in combat and we will defend every last square centimeter of our territory. But does Europe have the courage to continue this fight? Do we have the necessary unity and sense of urgency? Or do we prefer to squabble among ourselves, paralyzed by our divisions?" One year later, the question has lost its epic quality because little has changed in the European reaction. And the landscape, certainly, is now worse than it was then.
It is somewhat ironic that one of Von der Leyen's favorite songs is Wind of Changes, by Scorpions. Happy music. The song talks about a world that is changing. The world talks about a Europe that is struggling to find the way to adapt.