Israel begins a new phase of the war with a ground incursion into southern Lebanon

BeirutAfter days of cross-bombing and airstrikes across the countryThe war between Israel and Hezbollah has entered a new phase. The Israeli army launched limited and targeted ground operations in southern Lebanon on Monday, targeting positions of the Shiite movement near the border. Units of the 91st Division advanced after intense artillery bombardments and airstrikes on Hezbollah bases and tunnels, aiming to dismantle military infrastructure and reinforce what Israel calls a forward "security zone" along the border. Meanwhile, Israeli media are reporting preparations to mobilize up to 450,000 reservists, indicating that the army is preparing for a much broader scenario than a single incursion. Infantry forces are slowly deploying while tanks advance along rural roads that still bear the marks of the 2024 fighting, a reminder that the terrain of southern Lebanon has historically been a persistent battleground.

Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has been even more explicit: the hundreds of thousands of Shia residents evacuated from southern Lebanon will not be allowed to return south of the Litani River until the safety of Israel's northern inhabitants is guaranteed. His words suggest that the objective is not merely to neutralize military positions, but to permanently alter the balance on the border.

Israel is pursuing a broader strategic objective: to push Hezbollah north of the Litani River and consolidate a security buffer zone that prevents direct attacks on its territory. The mass evacuation of the population in the south has left vast areas virtually empty, creating a free-fire zone where the Israeli army can move with greater freedom. This space also offers room to influence the future political and military configuration of the border, and even to redefine the northernmost strip between the Litani and the Awali River, at the entrance to Sidon.

Since the war of autumn 2014, Israel already maintains at least six positions inside Lebanese territory. The new incursion could expand this control and, incidentally, pressure Hezbollah to limit its response capabilities to the region closest to the border.

A reorganized Hezbollah resists the incursions

For Hezbollah, the situation is complex but not hopeless. The Shiite group claims to be resisting daily Israeli incursions and has launched anti-tank missiles, drones, and artillery attacks against Israeli positions. However, beyond the immediate fighting, the militia appears to have been preparing for this scenario since November 2024. Following the 2024 war, the Shiite militia accepted an agreement that involved implementing UN Resolution 1701 and reducing its presence in southern Lithuania. For months, it gave ambiguous signals about disarmament or integrating its weapons into the state's defense. For analysts and sources close to the party, this was not a sign of weakness, but rather a phase of strategic reorganization: rebuilding capabilities, adapting combat tactics, and strengthening its chain of command. Today, the group operates in small cells, combines missile and drone attacks, and keeps its elite Al-Radwan units on high alert. According to sources within the group, the fighters are ready for a prolonged confrontation, prepared to resist ground incursions despite clear Israeli military superiority.

The big question is whether the current Israeli offensive will truly remain "limited." The evacuation of the population and the concentration of Israeli troops suggest that the conflict could drag on, in a scenario of a war of attrition, with Hezbollah defending key positions and trying to maintain pressure on the border while Israel controls strategic terrain.

The cost to Lebanon is already high: 886 dead, 2,141 wounded, nearly one million displaced, damaged infrastructure, and the south of the country transformed into an active combat zone. Amid deserted villages and blocked roads, civilian life is suspended, while the population waits with uncertainty to see what will happen in the coming weeks.

For Hezbollah, this war represents an opportunity to consolidate its narrative of resistance, but also an existential risk if the confrontation continues without a supporting political agreement. What Israel presents as a limited incursion could, in fact, become the start of a much longer confrontation in southern Lebanon, a region once again at the center of a war that threatens to redefine the balance on the Middle East's most volatile border.