Israel and Iran enter a new phase of regional escalation with Lebanon as a point of tension

BeirutThe exchange of attacks between Israel and Iran has stopped, at least for now. Iran has declared its military operations finished this Monday, although it has warned that it will resume them if Israeli bombings against Lebanon continue. Iran launched several attacks this Sunday night, for the first time since the ceasefire signed on April 8, in response to Israeli bombings in the southern districts of Beirut. And, although it has announced its cessation, the Iranian military command has warned that Tehran will act “with even greater force” if attacks against its interests and those of its allies in the region resume.

The warning comes after the latest escalation between Israel and Iran, which occurred in a brief but intense sequence of missile exchanges and aerial attacks, also involving Yemen. During this wave, Iran launched nearly thirty ballistic missiles against Israel, according to Israeli military sources. The projectiles activated alarms in several areas of the country, and although most were intercepted, the episode raised the alert level on the Israeli home front.

In parallel, the Houthis of Yemen have launched new missiles towards Israeli territory, expanding the regional scope of the confrontation and consolidating the involvement of different actors aligned with Tehran in the dynamics of recent days. Israel has responded with attacks on targets in Iran, in a sequence that has once again placed the risk of a conflict expansion beyond the direct exchange between the two countries.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced in a televised statement that Israel is “containing” attacks against the Islamic republic for now, although he also warned that any new Iranian aggression will provoke a decisive response from the Israeli army in the exercise of its right to self-defense.

Meanwhile, the Lebanese front remains active despite the declaration of a ceasefire and months of diplomatic contacts that have failed to stabilize the situation. During the day, the Israeli air force has maintained bombings in southern Lebanon, and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has stated that military operations in this country will continue despite the reduction in tension with Iran, reiterating that Israel will not be intimidated by threats from Tehran.

Iran defends Hezbollah

In Israel, military authorities assure that the country is preparing for different escalation scenarios. Army sources indicate that possible responses are being evaluated in case Hezbollah expands the scope of its operations, while vigilance is maintained against a possible simultaneous deterioration of various fronts. Of particular concern is the possibility of a jump in the intensity of its actions and its coordination with Iran and other regional allies.

For years, Hezbollah was considered Iran's main pressure tool against Israel. When Tehran needed to send a message, its allies in the region usually did so. What has happened in the last few hours points in another direction. After Israeli bombings on the southern districts of Beirut, Hezbollah's stronghold, Iran has responded with new salvos of missiles against Israel and has publicly linked the two fronts. The Israeli army itself has stated that “the Iranian regime is defending its allies in Lebanon”. The phrase summarizes a reading that has gained weight in recent days: the growing interconnection between the different scenarios of the regional conflict.

The Lebanese conflict is not disconnected from the rest of the fronts. Hezbollah continues to attack Israeli positions in southern occupied Lebanon and, more limitedly, targets in northern Israel, while the risk now is that these exchanges will be integrated into a broader regional dynamic. The Israeli army has insisted that it is preparing for several days of possible fighting on different fronts, with special attention to developments in the north. At the same time, it has warned that it does not rule out attacking the southern districts of Beirut again if it identifies targets linked to Hezbollah.

In parallel, Iran has raised the tone of its warnings. The Iranian military command has warned that Tehran will respond “even more strongly” if attacks against Lebanon continue, and has added that any new aggression by Israel or the United States will receive a “more forceful” response. The message, broadcast on state television, reinforces the idea of a unified regional front for Tehran.

Trump pushes to maintain diplomacy

This exchange of warnings comes at a time when diplomatic efforts driven by Washington are trying to contain the escalation. After meeting with President Joseph Aoun, the U.S. ambassador to Beirut, Michel Issa, insisted on the need to resume negotiations and assured that the United States is working to prevent an expansion of the conflict.

In parallel, Donald Trump stated that both Israel and Iran desire an immediate ceasefire and that talks are progressing, although he acknowledged that the blockade and pressure measures will remain in place until an agreement is reached. In a message on Truth Social, he demanded that Tehran and Tel Aviv stop the attacks "immediately" and warned that peace negotiations could be affected by "ignorance or stupidity."

On the ground, the dynamic is different. Bombings in southern Lebanon continue and the various regional actors maintain alert positions. Between diplomacy and military escalation, Lebanon once again occupies a central position. What has changed now is not the existence of different fronts, but the possibility that they may begin to move at the same pace. Every attack on Beirut, Tel Aviv, or Tehran can have repercussions on other scenarios of the regional war.