Iran faces the unprecedented succession of Khamenei as the war continues

BarcelonaThe death this Saturday of Iran's Supreme Leader, Ali KhameneiThe US and Israeli bombing of his residence in central Tehran has triggered an unprecedented succession process in the Islamic Republic, while the war continues. Washington and Tel Aviv bombed the Iranian capital again, while Iran launched attacks on Israel, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.

The Israeli military has announced a new wave of bombings against some 30 targets in various parts of Iran, including air defense systems, missile launchers, Iranian regime targets, and military command centers. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz issued a statement saying the military is "carrying out intensive attacks against sites belonging to the Iranian regime." Several media outlets have reported multiple explosions in Tehran, especially in areas with government buildings. Army spokesman Nadav Shoshani said most of the air defense systems in western and central Iran have been disabled. And he warned that the attacks would continue "for as long as necessary" until all targets were destroyed.

In response, the Revolutionary Guard is maintaining its attacks against Israel and Persian Gulf countries where the US has a presence. According to the state news agency Tasnim, Iranian forces have launched bombings against 27 US military bases and military targets in Israel. However, the attacks have not been limited to military installations. In Bahrain, for example, a missile struck a hotel in Manama, the capital. Damage to a residential building in Abu Dhabi from the impact of debris from an intercepted drone has also been reported. The UAE Ministry of Defense reported three deaths and 58 minor injuries in Iranian attacks against the country.

The foreign ministers of the Arab Gulf states will hold a teleconference this Sunday to discuss how to respond to Iran's retaliatory attacks, according to Reuters.

Doubts about the regime's continuity

Donald Trump has warned that if Iran continues its military response against US targets, the US will use "force the likes of which have never been seen." In this context, the Risk of regional war grows And it is unclear whether the Iranian regime will be able to survive. Shoshani has stated that Israel does not plan to deploy ground forces in Iran, although both Benjamin Netanyahu and Trump have urged the Iranians to seize the opportunity to overthrow their leaders.

Iran, which did not acknowledge the death of its supreme leader until early this morning, has announced 40 days of mourning for Khamenei, who died along with senior regime security officials, his daughter, son-in-law, and grandson in the worst blow against the Iranian regime's leadership since it was established. President Masoud Pezeshkian called it "a declaration of war against all Muslims," ​​invoked Iran's right to defend itself, and vowed to avenge Khamenei.

Meanwhile, the official IRNA news agency has reported that a three-member council—comprising President Pezeshkian, Chief Justice Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei, and Guardian Council jurist Alirea Arafi—will temporarily assume the government of the country until the election of a new leader. Khamenei assumed leadership of Iran in 1989, following the death of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had led the Islamic Revolution a decade earlier. While Khomeini is considered the ideological force behind the revolution that ended the Iranian monarchy, Khamenei shaped the country's military and paramilitary apparatus, strengthening both internal control and regional influence.

An uncertain future

Now a horizon of uncertainty opens up. It remains unclear whether the objective of the joint US-Israeli intervention is to overthrow the regime or simply to replace Khamenei with another figure who will yield to their demands. as happened with Nicolás Maduro in VenezuelaAccording to Iranian media reports, last June, following Israel's 12-day war with US support, Khamenei began preparing for the succession and appointed a three-member committee tasked with recommending a successor in the event of his death or assassination. The Supreme Leader's preferred candidate remains unknown. Among the names circulating were those of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who does not hold a sufficiently high religious rank, and Sadegh Larijani, head of the judiciary and brother of Ali Larijani, secretary of the National Security Council, the highest-ranking official after Khamenei. Hassan Rouhani, the former president who holds the highest religious rank, was also mentioned.

Constitutionally, the selection of the successor falls to the Assembly of Experts, an elected body of 88 members, many of whom are considered qualified for the position, but which cannot convene under the current conditions for fear of being bombed by Israel and the United States. As details of the attack on Khamenei emerge, it becomes clear that Tel Aviv and Washington had precise intelligence on the leader's whereabouts, demonstrating their ability to infiltrate even the innermost core of the regime. According to reports, New York TimesThe death of the supreme leader and other high-ranking Iranian officials came after an intelligence exchange between the United States and Israel, and especially thanks to key information from the CIA, which learned that a high-level meeting would take place Saturday morning at a compound in Tehran and that Khamenei would attend. The appointment of a successor—especially after such a long tenure—is expected to become a political battleground between conservatives and radicals, as well as with the Revolutionary Guard, who will want to ensure a leader who aligns with their interests. The outcome of the election will determine the regime's direction and the future of the war.