The first results in Hungary place Péter Magyar's opposition ahead of Orbán

Special correspondent to BudapestHungary's electoral authority has begun publishing the preliminary results of Sunday's parliamentary elections. With only 6.5% of votes counted so far, the figures give an advantage to Tisza, the opposition party led by Péter Magyar, with 110 seats, while Viktor Orbán's Fidesz would be left with 71 deputies. The far-right party Mi Hazánk (My Homeland) would take nine. Parliament has 199 seats.

gave a wide margin of advantage to TiszaPéter Magyar gave his first speech half an hour after the polls closed and appeared "optimistic." He stressed that the work of more than 50,000 party observers had helped prevent a large part of the electoral fraud, but assured that, despite this, they had received information about thousands of cases in various parts of the country, "some of them serious." Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has not yet appeared publicly at Fidesz headquarters, but his chief of staff, Gergely Gulyas, has, stating that he is confident that the current governing coalition will be able to govern as before.

All independent polls published during the campaign gave a wide margin of advantage to Tisza. Since leaving Fidesz two years ago, Magyar has managed to unite practically all opposition to Orbán's government, which has ruled with absolute majorities for the last sixteen uninterrupted years. Two polls published just as the polling stations closed, but prepared days before the elections, project a very favorable outcome for Tisza, between 132 and 135 seats out of a total of 199.

However, analysts and citizens warn that nothing can be taken for granted before the official results are known. At the polling stations in Budapest today, various groups of observers are overseeing the process. The organization Tiszta Szavazás (Clean Vote), which fights against electoral corruption, has released a statement in which it assures that it has received reports of "organized transport" and "vote buying" in the cities of Debrecen, Pécs, and Kemecse. It also stated that in Dabas, a town south of Budapest, money had been distributed in front of a polling station.

Objective: control of Parliament

Orbán has framed these elections as a referendum between “war or peace”. He assures that Magyar, whom he characterizes as a \u201ptuppet” of the “Brussels bureaucrats”, will drag Hungary into war against Russia, while a government of continuity guarantees a peaceful future for the country.

For his part, the opposition leader has promised to return Hungary to the democratic path and eliminate the corrupt system that the prime minister has implemented. But a simple majority will not be enough for him. The key is to achieve representation equivalent to two-thirds of Parliament, which Fidesz has had since 2010. This allowed him during his first term to change the Constitution without having to consult any other party and to begin to eliminate the main government control mechanisms. “If Tisza wins but does not have two-thirds of Parliament, his hands will be very tied for reforms”, warns Hungarian analyst Zsuzsanna Végh, associated with the think tank European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

The Hungarian Parliament has 199 seats, since the electoral law modification promoted by Fidesz in 2011 —before, it had 386—. Voters vote with two ballots: one from a national list, from which 93 deputies are elected proportionally, and another in which they choose local representatives, from which the remaining 106 are elected: the winner by simple majority takes the seat. The reform strengthened single-member districts, which favors parties with more support in less populated areas, as is the case with Fidesz. In contrast, there is a large concentration of opposition voters in very populated urban districts, especially in Budapest, which in recent years has harmed the rest of the parties.

"Everyone wants change"

In the early afternoon, on the esplanade in front of the majestic Hungarian Parliament, groups of tourists mingled with about fifteen people setting up a structure of lights and speakers. "Nobody is organizing this, we are a group of private individuals... it's a techno festival, it's not political at all," explains one of the three men setting up portable toilets a few meters away. They are right in front of the Ministry of Construction and Transport, which is barricaded with metal fences and police officers. I ask them if they have voted and what their expectations are. He doesn't elaborate on the answer, which is quite concise: "Everyone wants change".

In the polling stations, the messages received are along the same lines. But one of the few who agree to answer (without giving their name) points to the reason: "Here in Budapest people are more liberal, but in rural areas there are many pro-Fidesz people". "I am an LGBTI person and I would really like to see Orbán out of government," he says. One of the targets of Viktor Orbán's government's ultraconservative crusade has been this group. "Everyone around me is very hopeful that Tisza will win, but I have my doubts," he admits.

A girl who has just voted at the same polling station is optimistic, but she also doesn't have all her hopes up: "I have a lot of hope, but I also have a strange mix of feelings. I'm scared... if Tisza doesn't win, it will be a disaster." And she points to a possibility that is hanging in the air today in Budapest: "If the opposition doesn't win, maybe people will revolt and take to the streets to protest".