From the cordon sanitaire to power: European far-right two years after the elections

BrusselsBefore the last European elections on June 9, 2024, Ursula von der Leyen was already hinting during the election campaign about the new role that the far-right would play in the European Union. In order to secure the renewal of her mandate at the head of the European Commission, she repeatedly stated that not all far-right parties are the same and opened herself up to negotiations with formations like that of the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni. Although she ultimately did not need their support, the relationship between conservatives and the far-right changed entirely. Without a sanitary cordon and with great electoral results, the far-right has consolidated itself in state governments and in the Eurochamber, and they are no longer just honking horns, but have also adopted a central and powerful role in the European Union.

it has already been turned into almost an allianceit has already become almost an alliance.

However, the far-right has not only entered the power core of the Eurochamber. Despite Viktor Orbán's defeat, the European Union has seen Meloni confirm herself as one of the most influential leaders in the bloc – especially on immigration – and has seen new far-right leaders radicalize or come to power in Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Romania, or Belgium. This means their influence is growing in the Council of the EU, the community body representing member states, and they play a more decisive role in meetings of heads of state and government where major decisions are made.

Furthermore, achieving power has not worked against them, but rather the opposite. A study by the European Policy Centre (EPC) research centre refutes "optimistic narratives about the decline of the far right" and assures that, two years after the European Parliament elections, its growing trend remains "intact". "They have a consolidated electoral space and are already like the rest of the traditional parties," assures Javier Carbonell, one of the authors of the report Two years later: Why Europe's far right keeps growing, along with researchers Tabea Schaumann and Levente Kocsis, in a conversation with ARA.

, but in the long run it benefits from having been normalized as another political force.

The Trump effect

The study also differentiates between leading a government and being part of it as a minority partner. It gives the most prominent example of Meloni or the Flemish Bart De Wever, who have gained popularity at the head of the Belgian and Italian executive, but contrasts it with the fact that entering the executive without leading it has worn down the far-right more. However, it is also a double-edged sword and there are cases like that of the Austrian FPÖ, which, despite an initial electoral setback when it was in government, later achieved even better results. According to Carbonell, this is explained because, at first, the far-right party electorally suffers from ceasing to be the alternative to the statu quo, but in the long run it benefits from having been normalized as a political force.

The Trump effect

Donald Trump's threats to impose more tariffs on the European Union and invade Greenland, as well as the attack on Iran and the war that resulted in the Middle East, seemed to be able to make his main European allies lose support. However, Carbonell qualifies that the attitude of the President of the United States "may have affected the far right electorally", but in a "minimal" way. "The growing trend remains," assures the researcher.

Carbonell assures that the far right has managed to emerge almost unscathed from Trump for two main reasons. Firstly, because the vast majority of far-right leaders and parties have managed to distance themselves from the White House, especially after Orbán's defeat. And, secondly, because "the rest of the formations and leaders – apart from some timid exceptions, such as Pedro Sánchez's – have not really confronted the US president much" and, therefore, have not been able to make much of a difference with the far right.