Exit polls give victory to social democracy in Sweden

With the polling stations now closed, exit polls give victory to the Social Democratic Party (SAP) in the Swedish general elections, with 28.4% of the vote. The Moderates, the party of Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, would finish in second place with 18.1% of the vote, while the far-right party Sweden Democrats would position themselves as the third force in parliament with 17.2% of the vote, according to the public broadcaster SVT's poll. Channel TV4 gives the Social Democrats 28.4%, and swaps the second and third place, with Sweden Democrats (18.5%) ahead of the Moderates (17.5%).If this result is confirmed, the parties of the progressive bloc with 51.6% of the votes would add up to the necessary seats to form a government, although the majority is only 4.6 points over the conservative bloc, which in the poll obtains 46.8% of the votes. The elections have been marked by the debate over the state of public services, immigration and the economy, but also by the possibility that the Sweden Democrats could enter government for the first time and become part of the country's executive. The elections have been marked by the debate over the state of public services, immigration and the economy, but also by the possibility that the Sweden Democrats could enter government for the first time and become part of the country's executive.An eventual entry of the far-right into the executive would culminate the transformation of the Sweden Democrats, a party that for decades has been a pariah of Swedish politics and is now considered by the conservative bloc a legitimate and reliable governing partner. Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson, (62 years old), was elected to the position in 2022 leading a coalition with the Christian Democratic Party and the Liberal Party. This majority was made possible thanks to the support of the SD, which although it remained outside the government, has managed to exert great influence over the executive, especially on immigration and security policies, which have been one of the main factors of the conservative turn that Sweden has experienced in recent years.Closed door

On the other hand, Magdalena Andersson's social democrats (59 years old) have focused their campaign on making a fierce defense of the welfare state and on helping families in difficulty to cope with rising prices. Faced with the restrictive shift in migration policies of the last conservative government, which has meant the end of the refugee reception culture in the Nordic country, Andersson has pledged to maintain this restrictive policy if the social democrats come to power. The labor leader, who was already prime minister between 2021 and 2022, has declared that the immigration policy that Sweden had maintained in the past was "unsustainable," and has also pointed out that her party would be willing to support "return centers" for immigrants outside the EU, in the event that her party comes to power.One of the main hurdles for Andersson would be managing to form a governing majority among the parties of the progressive bloc, as they have shown themselves to be quite divided during the campaign. This bloc has four formations in addition to the Social Democrats, which include the Centre Party (of agrarian and centrist tradition), the Green Party, and the Left Party (feminist and environmentalist, situated furthest to the left in Parliament). During the campaign, the Centre Party has been frontally opposed to incorporating the Left Party into an eventual coalition government. At the same time, the formations located further to the left have questioned the Social Democrats' restrictive migration policy. Beyond that, Andersson has expressed her concern about incorporating the Left Party into a possible government following the scandal that has caused during the campaign as some of its members expressed their support for the Palestinian organization Hamas, considered a terrorist group. Because of all this, analysts do not rule out that the Social Democrats may seek to form a centrist majority, although that will also be difficult.