Europe is not throwing in the towel and wants to assert its authority in Ukraine against Trump and Putin.

BarcelonaThe European Union has reacted in a unprecedented way in the war in UkraineIt has been the power that has sent the most aid, both humanitarian and military, to Ukrainians and that has applied the most sanctions against Russia. It has also been the one that has paid the highest price: an energy and price crisis—closely linked to the loss of competitiveness of European industry—and the growing threat of expansionism from Vladimir Putin's regime, which has led it to break the taboo against militarism and carry out a major rearmament. However, when it seemed that the critical moment had arrived, Donald Trump did not hesitate for a moment to return to leave Europeans out

The attitude of the US president no longer surprises anyone, especially considering past precedents. Just look at the Gaza peace agreement, in which the European Union—which is also the largest contributor of humanitarian aid to Palestine and Israel's main trading partner—simply yielded to Trump's conditions and deadlines. And before that, the EU-US trade agreement The agreement that ended the trade war already foreshadowed what the new transatlantic relationship would look like. Despite the initial reaction of European leaders, who intended to put the New York tycoon in his place, they soon began to ignore the president's demands and reluctantly accept all of them. To the point that they signed a pact whereby European products are subject to tariffs of 15%, while American products face tariffs of 15%. Furthermore, the European Union, which is theoretically well on its way to energy independence, must purchase energy products from the US worth €700 billion in just three years. Now, could the case of Ukraine be different, and could the EU play a prominent role in the negotiations? At least for now, and together with Ukraine, the European countries—led by Germany, the United Kingdom, and France—have managed to halt the first peace plan that Trump sent to Volodymyr Zelensky. Some US senators explained that Secretary of State Marco Rubio himself had told them that the document originated in Russia. In fact, it was heavily biased towards the Kremlin's interests and disregarded all of Brussels and Kyiv's main red lines.

The European Commission and the EU as a whole remain firm in their position and, at least for the moment, have not yielded to Trump and Putin. European leaders insist on rejecting the cession of all the territory of the Donbas region, intend to leave the door open to Ukraine's potential future accession to NATO, and want to prevent the Ukrainian army from being reduced to a bare minimum in peacetime, as Moscow wants to stipulate in writing.

Beyond this initial reaction, the million-dollar question is to what extent the European Union and Kyiv, which have consistently acted in concert, are willing and able to withstand the pressure from the White House and the Kremlin. "Unity is key," emphasizes Karel Lannoo, head of the European research center CEPS, in a conversation with ARA.

The European club's opinion is almost unanimous in its support for Ukraine and its opposition to Russia, a stark contrast to the division the Gaza conflict is causing among member states and EU leaders. Unity also fractured during the trade war against Trump, as some countries favored a more confrontational approach while others sought to salvage what they could, even through a poor trade deal. However, there are also dissenting voices within the EU regarding the war in Ukraine, with Hungary and Slovakia, in particular, frequently obstructing any measures that support Kyiv and oppose Moscow. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán greeted Putin warmly on Friday in Moscow.

The decoupling of the transatlantic alliance

Despite the broad EU consensus on Ukraine, experts warn that this is not a sufficient factor in any case and caution about the geopolitical implications of Trump's return for Europe. The head of think tank CEPS, based in Brussels, explains that the European leaders it has spoken with this week about the peace plan still hope that the United States will ultimately defend European interests. But Karel Lannoo calls for facing reality. "The EU and US agendas are different, which is very worrying. [...] It seems that all the gestures from the White House are aimed at weakening Europe," the expert points out.

The head of CEPS believes that, despite the EU's attempts to assert itself, the situation "is not very favorable" for Ukraine and insists on the paradigm shift. "We trusted that the Americans would help us again, but that has changed, and I'm not sure," Lannoo warns. Along the same lines, the researcher from think tank European EPC Georg Riekeles urges European leaders "not to turn a blind eye to the strategic divergences with the US" and advocates confronting them in the negotiations on Ukraine, just as they should have done with the trade war. "Flattering Trump is not only humiliating, but it has also proven ineffective," the expert adds.

Therefore, and to avoid a repeat of the current situation, Lannoo argues that the discourses advocating for a more autonomous and independent EU from the United States, without fear of a future outside the military umbrella that the Pentagon has provided in Europe since the end of World War II, have been gaining considerable traction. It is increasingly clear that this is the only way to regain a decisive role on the international stage and, consequently, to fight for its own interests.