Closing shop windows as a form of protest: the economic pressure that worries the Iranian regime
The death toll from the protests in Iran ranges from 650 to several thousand, according to various NGOs.
BeirutIn Iran, the protests are no longer confined to the streets. After more than two weeks of demonstrations, the epicenter of discontent is no longer limited to marches and nightly clashes. It has shifted to the everyday economy, to the way millions of citizens try to survive in a country whose currency has collapsed, whose basic prices have skyrocketed, and whose public services are deteriorating under the weight of the crisis.
The trigger for the protests remains a deeply entrenched economic situation. The rial has lost much of its value against the dollar in recent months, eroding wages and savings. Inflation remains above 40%, while the prices of food, fuel, and medicine continue to rise. For the urban middle class and precarious workers, purchasing power is shrinking week after week. The economic pressure had been building for some time, and the protests merely gave it visible form.
The Iranian government's response has been a mix of violent repression, control of information, and confrontational rhetoric on the international stage, rather than genuine economic reforms. Since December 28, protests have spread to virtually every province in the country, and reports of violence against demonstrators have become increasingly frequent. US-based human rights organizations, such as the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), estimate that the death toll from the crackdown has exceeded 648, with more than 10,600 arrests in the first two weeks of protests. Other opposition sources, such as the People's Mujahedin Organization of Iran, report much higher figures, exceeding several thousand deaths according to investigations involving local sources, hospitals, and forensic services. The violence and the number of casualties have become a central factor in the crisis, not only because of their humanitarian gravity but also because of how they influence public perceptions of the regime's legitimacy.
In parallel, the authorities have tried to project an image of control. On Monday, large pro-government rallies were organized in several cities, presented by state television as a popular condemnation of the protests.
The confrontation is also shifting to the international stage. The Speaker of Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, issued a direct warning to Donald Trump, stating that any attack against Iran would be met with a strong response and that US forces in the region would be legitimate targets. Foreign rhetoric is reappearing as a classic resource for national cohesion in times of domestic vulnerability.
Meanwhile, in daily life, the repression has reduced the size of the demonstrations, but has not restored social or economic normalcy. In major urban centers, numerous businesses are open for only a few hours or remain closed for days without a formal strike being called. Tehran's Grand Bazaar, a traditional economic and social barometer, is operating at a minimum. In mid-sized cities, entire shopping streets display closed shutters during normal business hours. Transportation is also suffering. Bus and taxi drivers are working irregularly, routes are being shortened, and daily commutes are becoming uncertain. The informal economy, on which millions of families depend, is caught between a lack of customers and the fear of police checks. The digital blackout exacerbates this paralysis. Electronic transactions fail, mobile payments are disrupted, and restocking goods becomes more expensive. In many neighborhoods, local support networks are emerging to share food, transportation, or elder care. This spontaneous organization ensures survival but also highlights the loss of trust in the state's ability to sustain daily life. The government has announced direct aid to vulnerable households and promised tax reforms aimed at easing the economic pressure. However, these measures are met with deep skepticism. Reactivating a partially paralyzed economy requires restoring confidence, a scarce resource these days.
Economic protest, manifested in business closures and routine adjustments, is expanding its reach beyond the traditionally mobilized sectors. Shopkeepers, informal workers, and families with frozen wages or mounting debt now share a common sense of frustration and discontent.
When closing down becomes a form of protest, the conflict ceases to be merely political. It becomes a struggle for control of daily life and for the possibility of a minimally stable future. In this arena, the regime faces an adversary less visible than a crowd in the street, but more persistent and more difficult to contain.
