Chaos theory: Putin's ideologues predict a future full of wars

MoscowVladimir Putin has repeatedly cited the reasons why he ordered the invasion of Ukraine, but his ideologues have spent years developing a new vision of international relations to justify this aggression. To this end, the Valdai Club, the think tank The most important figure in Russian foreign policy has devised the "chaos theory." This model depicts a world in complete collapse, in which countries adapt to disorder to survive, without ethics or morals, and with war as the norm, no longer an anomaly. Donald Trump's return to the presidency of the United States has given the Kremlin The push he needed to proclaim the triumph of chaos.

The Valdai Club reports are published annually to coincide with the forum he organizes, in which Putin always participates. As journalist Anton Barbashin writes in Riddle, their intention is not to set the course of Russian foreign policy, but to provide an "intellectual explanation" for the Kremlin's actions, making them appear "logical, justified, and often the only possible ones." The 2025 document was titled "Doctor Chaos or how to stop worrying and estimate disorder."

Its authors, recently sanctioned by the European Union, believe that Russia's vision of a multipolar world, with multiple centers of power rather than a single superpower, is no longer sufficient. According to them, we are in a period of chaos brought about by the collapse of the old world order, represented by the West and its liberal system. This is a transitional phase toward a new system with new partners, institutions, and norms.

From their perspective, clinging to the past, as Europe does, is counterproductive; Europe should acknowledge the failure of its worldview. The key, then, is not to try to stop the chaos, but to accept it and learn to ride it. Each country is alone and must look after its own interests; therefore, the era of grand, perpetual mutual defense treaties, like NATO, is over. In contrast, Russia's shifting policies make perfect sense, capable of abandoning allies based on calculated benefits, as it has done in Syria, and of coming to terms with former adversaries without any remorse.

For Valdai scholars, another consequence of this chaos is the disappearance of ethics and morality in politics and the obsolescence of universal notions. One cannot stand on the right side of history because there simply is no right side, they argue. This allows the Kremlin to establish ties with dictators around the world, while at home it brutally represses dissent. Human rights, the seed of the decadent liberal world, cease to have value, and only national circumstances matter, mired in a permanent state of exception. Barbashin describes it as a "radical nihilism" that gives rulers carte blanche to dictate whatever laws suit them best under the pretext that Russia is a "civilized state" not obligated to conform to either Western or Eastern standards.

War with NATO, just a matter of time

The culmination of chaos theory, which is interpreted as a self-fulfilling prophecy, This is what predicts that wars will "inevitably" multiply on all continents.Conflicts will no longer be resolved through international law, but with "more archaic methods"; war will cease to be a last resort, and the goal will be to minimize losses and maximize gains. The possibility of a limited preemptive nuclear strike is also acknowledged. "It cannot be completely ruled out," they note. And they are clear that "the specter of global war" will likely haunt us "forever."

The ideologues of chaos accuse Europe wants to inflict a strategic defeat on RussiaThey consider it a mistake because total victories like those in World War II or with the fall of the USSR are no longer possible. On the contrary, they predict a "renaissance" of 18th-century foreign policy, in which bloody wars did not end with the annihilation of the enemy, but with peace on the best possible terms until the next confrontation.

With Trump's help

This may shed light on Putin's negotiating strategy in Ukraine. Valdai's own analysts acknowledge that the only thing that can be hoped for is an "adjustment of thestatus quo", since the "contradictions" between sides will remain and we will have to wait for a new war. If the Russian president manages legalize the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas It will have triumphed because, as this theory argues, Russia will not be guilty of anything, nor will international law be violated.

In this sense, Trump's refusal to strive for a just peace and his equidistant stance contribute to chaos. We are facing a convergence of objectives. The authors understand that, while the American leader continues to believe he has "the exclusive right to define the criteria of justice," he now does so not on the basis of a universal moral concept, but without hypocrisy, for the benefit of selfish American interests.