Andy Burnham bursts into Westminster and puts Premier Keir Starmer on the ropes

LondonGood news for British Labour and, at the same time, bad news for Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and also for the far-right figure Nigel Farage. The incontestable victory in the Makerfield constituency by Andy Burnham in the partial election to the House of Commons held this Thursday opens a new phase in the party's crisis, and positions the Mayor of Manchester as the main contender to replace Starmer at Downing Street. Burnham obtained 54.8% of the votes (9,231 ballots), very comfortably defeating the Reform Party candidate, Robert Kenyon. After almost a decade focused on local politics, the so-called King of the North will be able to return to Westminster, where he already tried to take the party's reins after the electoral defeat of 2010.

The magnitude of the triumph shows, according to his supporters, that Burnham is capable of reconnecting Labour with the traditional working-class electorate of the north of the country. Voters who, both in the local elections of 2025 and in the most recent ones, on May 7th, had opted for Farage. But in just six weeks, since Burnham announced his candidacy and his intentions to challenge Starmer's leadership, Makerfield has gone from offering a 27-point lead to the Reform Party to giving a 20-point victory to Labour. The swing between both contests has been 23 points. Burnham overturns the decline of the last two contests and, in fact, widely surpasses the results with which Labour won this seat in the general elections of 2024. in the 2025 local elections and in the most recent ones, of May 7thwon this seat in the 2024 general electionwon this seat in the 2024 general elections.

In his victory speech, the new MP issued a direct warning to Starmer. "This is the last chance to change," he said, stating that it was the message he had heard repeatedly during the campaign. Burnham has not formally announced a bid for Downing Street, but in the preceding weeks he had made it clear that he would join any leadership race that got underway.

The ball is now in Starmer's court, who will have to decide whether to step aside, as almost a hundred of his own MPs asked him to six weeks ago, or to fight, as he has repeatedly stated, against the more than possible challenges to his authority. An authority, however, that has been squandered thanks to the countless errors and changes of course he has made since he became prime minister.

Throughout his speech, Burnham's criticism of Westminster has been explicit: "Everyone knows politics isn't working. Everyone senses the country isn't where it should be. Tonight could be, it simply could be, a turning point. I will give everything I have so that the name Makerfield is forever associated with the change this country needs, with the return of what we have lost: hope. Hope in the future".

Burnham has thus promised to place his new constituency at the centre of his political action. "For me, Makerfield will never be a mere political stepping stone; it will, instead, be my benchmark". And he has assured that he will place Makerfield "at the heart of British politics" to ensure that "the places Westminster has ignored finally receive the fair treatment they deserve: the people here have voted for change, they have voted that they want more power for the North and for all those places forgotten by Westminster."

According to sources close to Burnham, the new MP would already have the support of the 81 parliamentarians needed to formally trigger a leadership contest. Former Health Secretary Wes Streeting, who resigned after the May electoral shock, warned Starmer this week that he must either announce a timetable for an orderly departure or risk facing an internal rebellion. The premier has limited himself, for the moment, to congratulating Burnham on his victory.

The triumph of the Mayor of Greater Manchester, a man from the moderate left of the party, has unleashed a wave of enthusiasm among sectors critical of the current premier. On his way to Downing Street, Starmer unleashed a ruthless purge against all these sectors, trying to resurrect the Blairites, the current identified with former premier Tony Blair. A gamble that has proven to be a failure. The strategic decision for the party's two souls is now to decide whether to start a civil war or whether Starmer's supporters should withdraw.

Personal setback for Farage

The defeat of the Reform Party candidate also represents a personal setback for Nigel Farage and his xenophobic policies. The far-right leader was confident that Makerfield would be one of his great opportunities to demonstrate that he could turn his good local election results into parliamentary victories that would facilitate his access, in 2029, to Downing Street. Nothing could be further from the truth. Even by adding the votes (3,111; 7%) of the third party in contention, the also far-right Restore Britain, Farage would not have celebrated victory. In this regard, Burnham has insisted that his victory "now offers the possibility of building a new politics based on unity and hope, far from the path that leads to a dark and divisive politics like that of the United States".

Burnham's breakthrough in Westminster twenty-five years after he was first elected as an MP also carries a strong symbolic weight. This is the first clearly positive result for Labour in a competitive by-election since Starmer took office at Downing Street, almost two years ago. It also comes at a time when polls show a sustained drop in support for the government.

With Burnham's imminent return to the House of Commons, and the prospect of a leadership battle, the Labour Party now faces decisive days. What until recently seemed like a peripheral criticism of Starmer's leadership has become an alternative with electoral credibility. Burnham's challenge is, in reality, to change the course of the party and the country