Africa: to be on the table or to be on the menu
2026 has begun with news that will surely be among the most important of the year when December arrives. Aware that our attention spans are short, world leaders are fighting to capture headlines that are becoming increasingly fleeting. The big winner in this game is the President of the United States, Donald Trump. The EU, Canada, and the United Kingdom, faced with the collapse of the order in which they had operated for decades, They react by announcing trade agreements with IndiaMercosur and China.
In this context, the position of the African Union, the organization that brings together 55 African states, is striking, as it is not included in any of these announcements. The continent is part of the global conversation when discussing the demographic dividend—by 2050, one in four people in the world will be African—but it is rarely discussed how this can be an opportunity for Africans in Africa. When the abundance of strategic minerals in Africa is mentioned, the way in which renewable energies could provide electricity to the 600 million Africans who still lack access is also overlooked. If the continent becomes a supplier of raw natural resources, the energy transition will be green in Europe and neocolonial in Africa.
Much of this failure is due to two reasons: the lack of African unity and the imbalance in relations with the major powers. African heads of state, who often lack democratic legitimacy, prioritize short-term diplomatic victories—a reception in Washington or Brussels, an agreement with Beijing or Moscow—over the more complex, long-term industrial planning that yields results. When they do manage to forge a common position, the major powers are quick to exploit these weaknesses. cuts in US international aidSome African states need to maintain development aid from European countries—even if it means losing trade opportunities—or guarantee access for their products to the European market. As the African Union's negotiator with the EU, Carlos Lopes, explained to me, talking to Europeans about industrialization in Africa is "like talking about the moon."
Foreign capital vs. informal economy
All of this perpetuates the current situation, visible across the continent: economies are divided between the formal sector, controlled by foreign capital, with access to credit and sometimes state support through tax breaks, and a vast, precarious, undercapitalized, and growing informal economy that sprawls from the urban peripheries. Most Africans live—working grueling hours—in this second-tier economy, with little chance of advancement. Some countries are negotiating independently with major powers. Guinea and the Democratic Republic of Congo, rich in minerals key to the energy transition, have had economies geared toward China for two decades, and in recent weeks have moved closer to Washington. Congo has submitted a list of available mining assets because they were sold to American investors. In both cases, there are two railway projects that will connect the Guinean and Congolese mines to the outside world. One line will go to the United States and the West; the other to China. From the mine to the port, disregarding the surrounding environment, just like in the 19th century. If Africans don't negotiate collectively, they will discover that, in this world of accelerated geopolitics, they are not only excluded from the negotiating table, but they remain part of the bargaining chip.
