Olive oil could cost 4 euros next year thanks to the abundant rains in January and February

The olive trees will bloom abundantly this spring thanks to the rains of January and February. If the olive trees are laden with blossoms in May, as everything suggests, they will bear fruit in June, and then there will be a good olive oil harvest in the autumn. If so, adding to the previous year's production, which has also been good, there will be a surplus, and the price of olive oil can be maintained at 4 euros, as it is currently selling for. This is the producers' forecast, who also say that, with olives, as with many crops, there is never a sure thing. "Now in spring we can predict that next year the price of olive oil will be low, but everything can change if the summer temperatures are extreme, and then the tree suffers," says Paco González, of Olies Guadalimar, one of the most important producers in Jaén, who also mentions the possibility of a June harvest. In that case, the blossoms could fall and, therefore, the fruit won't develop, which is exactly what happened three years ago. In Catalonia, Toni Galceran, a producer and head of the olive oil branch at the Federation of Agricultural Cooperatives of Catalonia, states that "it's very difficult to talk about it, about what the forecast will be, and right now it's like science fiction to explain anything, because it depends on the flowering in May, the fruiting in June, and the summer."

Spring flowering of the olive tree is crucial, and especially this year's, because a large bloom is expected. "Not all flowers produce fruit, because statistics tell us that only 1% out of every 3% of the tree does," says olive oil producer Paco González, adding that "if this is the usual statistic, that's why this spring is so important, because the tree will have many more flowers than usual, and therefore a greater chance of bearing fruit."

A third of the olives lost

Olive oil producers typically work with expectations of future harvest consumption. They rely on statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, which indicate that the Spanish and European markets consume 1.3 million tons of olive oil. "This year we won't reach that figure because a third of the January and February harvest was lost due to the rains, which caused the olives to fall from the trees and be lost," says Paco González. That's why the price of olive oil has stopped falling this year, stabilizing at €4.20 per liter for extra virgin olive oil.

Given how these first few months of the year have gone, there will be a large olive harvest in the fall, and therefore olive oil production will exceed the 1.3 million tons that the market is capable of buying. "If there's more, that's when there's a surplus, and consequently, prices could fall," says the producer from Guadalimar.

Three years ago, when the price of olive oil climbed to 10 eurosWhat happened was that there was more consumer demand than production. The olive trees suffered greatly from the drought, they didn't bear fruit, and so production fell below market demand. Some time later, everything recovered, and this year we could be looking at a very good one. However, all of this depends on the following conditions holding until autumn: abundant flowering, thanks to the rains in January and February; fruit harvesting in June; a summer without extreme temperatures; and finally, the harvest starting in October. The first one, the one with the first squirt, the one with the green oil..