Oil is not an isolated case: this is how climate change is disrupting our shopping basket

Grocery shopping isn't what it used to be. Prices have risen, and the products we expected to find aren't always available, or they aren't locally sourced even when they're in season. In fact, we may be more confused than ever about food seasons, not only because we've become complacent, but because they're becoming increasingly blurred. Behind it all is often climate change, which has already significantly disrupted our shopping habits and will do so even more, especially if the world continues to fail to take decisive steps to mitigate it. Now, raising awareness and taking action as consumers has become essential.

For Anna Bach-Faig, who directs the Master's program in Healthy and Sustainable Food at the UOC, "it is becoming increasingly clear that the climate is no longer a neutral backdrop: it is an active factor that influences what we eat and when we eat it." Extreme weather events such as heat waves, droughts, and torrential rains "disrupt harvests, shift seasons, and strain the availability of basic foods," and consequently, their prices, so "what until recently seemed guaranteed—like finding everything in the supermarket—is fragile." It's not just a matter of convenience: it has repercussions for health, the local economy, and global sustainability.

Oil has not been the only one

When you go shopping, have you had to dig deeper into your pockets than before? The reason could lie in current events or negative expectations against the backdrop of climate change. For example, a poor harvest due to drought, which gives the impression that it will be bad, or a combination of both scenarios. The exponential increase in the price of olive oil in recent years is a prime example, but the year we just said goodbye to, 2025, has given us many more examples.

Due to the high temperatures, last summer saw a shortage of locally grown Perona beans, and a large number of mussel larvae in the Ebro Delta died—the seed had to be imported—while the mild autumn temperatures resulted in an unprecedentedly good tomato and white bean season. The consequences of events beyond Catalonia are also felt here: the drought has meant that the delicious Muscat grape, grown in Alicante for eating at the table, has often been replaced in supermarkets by the Aledo variety, also grown there, but more resistant; chestnut prices have skyrocketed due to the Galician wildfires; and the nougat you bought this Christmas may have become more expensive because cocoa prices have reached exorbitant levels.

Furthermore, there are impacts linked to climate change that, although we don't see them, will eventually affect us. Oriol Camallonga, a partner at La Dotzena, an organic egg producer, explains that for some years now they have had to invest in climate control for the hens – "if the summer is too harsh, they can even die," he emphasizes – but when it comes to feeding the animals, not everything is within their control: if the feed is lacking or due to a bad harvest, it has to come from elsewhere, and that comes at a price. In the case of eggs, moreover, the negative expectations generated by the agricultural flu drove prices up.

Like Camallonga, several local producers and manufacturers who participated in the recent Gastronomic Forum Barcelona explained that they are experiencing the effects of climate change firsthand and are doing everything they can to ensure the burden doesn't fall solely on the consumer. Alessandro Cafiero, from Pastes Sanmartí, guarantees that customers "have only paid half of what they would have had to pay" due to the rising cost of semolina. Similarly, Gerard Costa, from Vallflorida Xocolaters, admits that he has had to raise the price of his nougat and panettone by 7% to remain competitive: "You can't compete on price, but you can compete on quality."

Spain is very vulnerable

An international investigation led by Maximilian Kotz of the Barcelona Supercomputing Center – National Supercomputing Center (BSC-CNS) has confirmed that food prices are rising in countries around the world due to extreme weather events, which are increasing with climate change, and the resulting imbalance between supply and demand. This is happening with agricultural products, but also with seafood. Spain is "one of the most vulnerable countries in Europe," warns Kotz, who also believes that "it is clear that exposure to these types of events will become more frequent and intense." We can adapt to reduce their impact, which requires investment, and "it is not clear to what extent this can actually help," so he says that "the first thing to do is to take the necessary measures to stop climate change."

For Kotz, "every action to reduce emissions reduces our future exposure to these impacts and gives us a better chance of ensuring a stable and affordable food supply in the future." We have a lot to do with our food choices. "The food system is responsible for between 30% and 37% of global greenhouse gas emissions, and in the EU, food is the largest component of the personal ecological footprint," emphasizes Bach-Faig, who therefore recommends adopting a healthy and sustainable diet: eating more vegetables and less red meat.

Ujué Fresan, a researcher in sustainable diets at IRTA, makes the same point, warning that climate change also has a social dimension: the most disadvantaged classes "will be the most affected" by rising prices, and their diets "will become even more impoverished." Therefore, Kotz believes that, in addition to citizen involvement, public administrations must also take action. The PLAN'EAT project, in which the UOC participates, has determined that key measures include guaranteeing healthy and sustainable menus in institutional catering (school cafeterias, hospitals, etc.) because these become a source of inspiration, as well as combating misinformation and imposing restrictions on advertising aimed at children so that citizens can make informed decisions.

Imma Tugas, from Tugas Pagès, also urges consumers to educate themselves on prioritizing seasonal and locally sourced products: "If we each made that small, conscious effort to consume more sustainably, there wouldn't be any problems." Price is one of the main factors influencing our purchases, but when it comes to olive oil, it's one of the essential foods that shouldn't be skimped on, and extra virgin, the highest quality, should be chosen. "We should get used to always having this oil on hand," argues Florinda Vidal Masip, from Degustus olive oil, who believes its price fluctuations should be treated like those of gasoline: "Before, if the price went up one or two cents, people would be outraged, but now they don't even notice."