The planet is warming faster and could exceed 1.5°C before 2030

Global warming is unstoppable, and in the last ten years it has accelerated significantly. This is the conclusion of a new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany, published this Friday in the scientific journal Geophysical Research Letters. The study confirms that since 2015, global warming has increased by approximately 0.35°C per decade, compared to the slightly less than 0.2°C average per decade recorded between 1970 and 2015. This new rate of temperature increase is higher than in any previous decade since instrumental records began in 1880, leading the research group responsible for the study to conclude that the warming limits set for this century could soon be exceeded. "If the warming rate of the last ten years continues, it would lead to a long-term exceedance of the 1.5°C limit set in the Paris Agreement before 2030," warns Stefan Rahmstorf, a researcher at PIK and lead author of the study, in the article. "The rate at which the Earth continues to warm ultimately depends on how quickly we reduce global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels to zero," he states. According to Rahmstorf himself, the adjusted data show an acceleration of global warming since 2015 with a statistical certainty of over 98%. The researchers compiled the study using the five major global temperature datasets established worldwide (NASA, NOAA, HadCRUT, Berkeley Earth, ERA5). Interference from specific phenomena

"We can now demonstrate a strong and statistically significant acceleration of global warming since approximately 2015," says Grant Foster, a US statistician and co-author of the study. The data have taken into account "natural influences" that can interfere with and mask changes in the warming rate data, such as El Niño, solar cycles, and volcanic eruptions. According to Foster, this ensures that the long-term warming signal is "clearly more visible" and reliable. Taking all this into account, after correcting for the effects of El Niño and the solar cycle maximum, 2023 and 2024, which were exceptionally warm years, have turned out to be somewhat cooler than previously thought, but they remain the two warmest years since instrument records began. The study has confirmed that the acceleration of global warming began to become evident in 2013 or 2014. To determine if the rate of global warming has changed since the 1970s, the research team used two statistical tools. The first analyzes whether the temperature trend has been accelerating over time, and the second divides the data series into different periods to objectively detect any points at which the rate of warming changes. The study does not analyze the exact causes of this possible acceleration. However, according to the authors, current climate models already predict that the rate of warming may increase, so this behavior falls within the realm of what climate studies consider possible.